As I reflected on the above graph from the very useful Scotland Coronavirus Tracker, the words of a song came into my head. Written in the 70s by Pete Atkin and Clive James, ‘The Last Hill That Shows You All the Valley‘ isn’t on re-reading that optimistic but I’d re-thought its title to suggest the optimism that we will surely see a downward slope soon, in coronavirus cases and deaths, as we enter a sunlit plain where the virus is contained and the vaccine is on the way.

I find that graph encouraging, The number of patients sick enough to be hospitalised has been falling slowly for a week now and the number really sick has been doing the same.

Remember these graph bars are not new cases every day like the graphs for new cases and new deaths, below. Some of these same patients have been there for weeks. The number of new cases admitted each day to ICU is not reported but the overall number has been falling for some days now suggesting that there are only a few really serious new cases coming in each day.

I appreciate that there are many elderly patients in care homes dying before they can be transferred to hospitals.

Also encouraging, the number of new infections with symptoms serious enough to be reported is beginning to fall after at least two weeks since the last major increase. Social distancing has worked.

Deaths too show some sign of flattening out over the last week though, of course, they are still tragically numerous.

It’s to be expected that deaths will only begin to fall after the number of new cases has been falling for some time.