Above, the Scotsman, BBC Scotland and the Herald are all unable to write the headline because only 2 were recorded as dying in the last 24 hours. When it was 46 it was splattered everywhere across the Scottish and UK media AND Nicola Sturgeon’ face was always there beside the number. Where is she today?
BBC Scotland could not even bear to tell you in the full text, how many had died in the last 24 hours. You had to check back to find what the total was the previous day and subtract.
Doesn’t this tell us something?
I know there will be more when the full certification is submitted but we have no reason to expect an increase comparable to the 46 which derived from several days of catch-up.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Interesting. Apparently the FM has says that the numbers of deaths today and tomorrow will be artificially low – why I don’t know – so we can see if they start with their headline ‘number of deaths’ if there is a few to add later.
Interesting too is that they have carried out over a thousand extra tests over the past day – and the percentage testing positive has now dropped to 15% (it has been in the high twenties or above the last week). The numbers don’t seem to have changed – but it does give a better idea of the % of population actually infected – I don’t know the testing criteria here though – are they testing all health care workers regardless of symptoms? Or are the testing only people with symptoms in hospital still?
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Should have also said that the percentage of the population of Scotland that has tested positive is about 0.07%. The above 15% is positives of those that were tested.
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Re ‘artificially low’: I don’t know either why this is but could it be for the following reasons?
The daily updates so far have been announced in the following terms: “X patients who tested positive have died”. This was careful – and pragmatic and reasonable – ‘drafting’.
I suspect that the number of deaths due to the virus in the daily report may have always been lower than the reality. We will only know this once the details of death certificates registered over the past weeks for people who had not been tested are analysed in due course.
Intuitively. once the basis of the mortality count becomes what is recorded in death certificates then there will be deaths attributable to Covid-19 based on the clinical judgement of an individual clinician completing the certificate who will not always have had the benefit of a test result to back up the diagnosis of cause of death.
At present we don’t know how many deaths in the community have been attributed on a death certificate to Covid-19 without recourse to a positive test result.
And when the basis of the mortality count becomes what is recorded in death certificates we introduce the other complexity that I noted BTL here on 31 March:
‘I suspect the status accorded Covid-19 in death certificates will further influence the statistical analysis of the overall impact of the virus in the coming months.’
In other words, Covid -19 may appear on a death certificate as the underlying or prime cause of death or (just) ‘mentioned’ as a further, contributing factor. I wonder how these two status categories will be communicated ‘officially’ in the immediate future and then in later analyses?
Moreover, whilst it was feasible to announce the deaths of those who had tested positive on a daily basis and be accurate to within 24 hours, can data based on death certificates have quite the same currency despite best efforts?
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Re- new process for reporting COVID-19 deaths:
So it looks as if the ‘new system’ doesn’t take account of my points above.
Source: https://www.gov.scot/news/new-process-for-reporting-covid-19-deaths/
Importantly this states: “There is NO CHANGE in the definition used to report deaths of COVID-19, which is defined as an individual who has died AND has had a laboratory confirmed report of COVID-19 in the 28 days prior to death.” (my emphasis)
This seems to indicate that the ‘official’ daily reporting will ONLY report deaths as attributable to Covid-19 where a positive test result is available to back up this conclusion.
So will clinicians who are completing certificates for deaths in the community NOT be attributing a death to Covid-19 unless a positive lab test is available? I suspect not, but don’t know. It may be that the full mortality statistic attributable to Covid-19 will only emerge sometime later.
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Well, that would imply there is already always a delay? But it could be a stall in testing (even though they’ve doubled the number of tests?), at least I can’t think of any other reason.
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Oh, so Nicola Sturgeon says it’s because National Registers doesn’t work 7 days – I don’t know enough about how this works to know why two deaths are recorded but not the rest – I think it’s more to do with changes in reporting criteria, I thought they’d changed over already but that is just happening now (and updating previous data?)
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According to Andrew Marr this morning, and it’s not the first time I’ve heard it expressed as such by the BBC, people in Scotland are being, “killed” by the coronavirus.
Language, eh?
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I don’t know who to believe, though certainly not English/British nationalist rags.
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Yes, it is a noteworthy change in approach. The format of the Scotland page has changed markedly from what we had become accustomed to over the past fortnight, where the number of new cases that day and the number of deaths that day were given prominence.
Today, the silly conduct of the Chief Medical Officer is given prominence and the deaths in the care home in Cranhill are getting prominence. In both cases, these are worthy of reporting. The first because it shows the CMO in ‘don’t do as I do, do as I say’ light. The second has a genuine ‘human interest’ albeit a sad one.
However, given the BBC Scotland propensity for shock-horor health stories I am suspicious that they are seeking to use it as an attack on the SG.
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It’s taken the BBC a while to work out their attack lines for the pandemic. Getting onto their stride now.
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Whoops wrong email
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It doesn’t matter. If everyone who contracted the virus in Scotland had made a remarkable recovery overnight the news headlines tomorrow have already been decided by the Tories … the CMO must go.
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Will they be calling for HRH Charlies head as well?
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Came off easy enough for his ancestor in 1649.
Charles gave the signal; the executioner beheaded him in one clean blow.
Huzzah!
According to my apparent kin:
Robertson, Geoffrey (2005), The Tyrannicide Brief: The Story of the Man who sent Charles I to the Scaffold, London: Chatto & Windus, ISBN 978-1-4000-4451-1
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