Mortality rate in English hospitals may be more than 3 times higher!

Yesterday, I reported the tragic news that, due to the new Scottish Government process for recording CV deaths, the rate had climbed to 5.7%.

https://www.gov.scot/news/new-process-for-reporting-covid-19-deaths/

The UK average rate was 8.6%, it seemed, but no such updated process had been implemented in England so the figures are not yet comparable.

However, in the Guardian today, three statisticians, ignoring the changes in Scotland of course, have been able to quantify the under-reporting in England, as far forward as the 30th March.

On one day, 29th, there were three times more deaths than reported in the statistics but over the period they seem to be at least twice as high.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong

So, on that basis, the average UK mortality would be a shocking 18.8% or between 3 and 4 times higher than in Scotland.

No English figures are published.

Why do I care about this? I’ve been accused of the worst sentiments but my aim is true. I wish to credit NHS Scotland fairly for what it is achieving and to refute the immature competitive slurs which Boris Johnson has aimed at it.

Footnote: I know these comparative mortality rates are problematic but they’re being widely used across global media so they are the reality we have. They’re simply the result of working out the percentage of confirmed cases, with all the variation there is out there, which have resulted in death.

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8 thoughts on “Mortality rate in English hospitals may be more than 3 times higher!”

  1. There is no need to apologise for what you have been doing. The media and unionist groups and politicians have been politicising this crisis increasingly hysterically.

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  2. Absolutely. I’m sure your increase in views is largely down to people knowing they have a better chance of reading the reality, rather than the media and govt spin.

    Liked by 2 people

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  3. John – travellingtabby has updated his webpage to show more data – comparison data, and he has England at 10.4% mortality (as defined as a percentage of those tested positive). He also shows share of population/positive % and % mortality share of Scotland within the UK, worth another look:

    https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

    Even if it isn’t as extreme as you are guessing, it still shows Scotland is coping far better.

    Liked by 1 person

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