One-size-fits-all approach covid-19 is not appropriate

From sam:

There is a lot to be critical about the approach of UK government to covid 19. The long initial delay of months before anything was done – first, a COBRA meeting. The useless “herd immunity” stuff and flawed modelling that first did not take account of the number of fatalities that letting it rip would cause and followed that by the worse blunder of excluding from modelling the effect of mass testing, the well-known and well tried method of controlling pandemics.

Then there was the failure to follow the advice in the 2011 report into policies to be adopted in the event of a flu epidemic in the UK. Among the recommendations not followed was to be prepared by having enough ventilators. It was unacceptable for political reasons relating to Brexit to the UK government to seek ventilators through the EU when that was offered to it. To cover possible embarrassment and criticism over this, there was a lie about missing the email that contained the offer.

At last, the UK government and the Scottish government are being challenged over the failure to follow WHO on testing for covid 19. The British Medical Journal has entered the fray. It says: “On 24 February, there were nine confirmed cases of covid-19 in the UK. On the same day, the World Health Organization recommended countries outside China with imported cases or outbreaks “prioritize active, exhaustive case finding and immediate testing and isolation, painstaking contact tracing and rigorous quarantine of close contacts.”1

On 22 March—when there were 5683 confirmed UK cases—Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO health emergencies programme, repeated the message on the BBC: “What we really need to focus on is finding those who are sick, those who have the virus, and isolate them, find their contacts and isolate them.”

This is entirely unexceptional. Case finding, contact tracing and testing, and strict quarantine are the classic tools in public health to control infectious diseases. WHO says they have been painstakingly adopted in China, with a high percentage of identified close contacts completing medical observation. In Singapore, Vietnam, and South Korea meticulous contact tracing combined with clinical observation plus testing were vital in containing the disease. This combined with strong measures to enforce isolation for travellers returning from high incidence areas obviated the need for a national lockdown and closure of all schools in Taiwan and Singapore.23”

https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1284

Today, with a low profile R4 at last started to get to grips with the issue of testing. Professor Anthony Costello was invited for a brief interview.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000gtm1 From about 1.34 in.

Readers here will know that Professor Pollock has been writing to the Scottish government urging it to undertake widespread testing. I have not heard anything that suggests it is able to do so or wants to do so.

There are questions to be asked about where responsibility about taking this kind of decision lies in an emergency such as this. Control of an emergency is a reserved matter. It seems plain enough that, as Professor Pollock and others have pointed out, a one-size fits all approach is not appropriate.

10 thoughts on “One-size-fits-all approach covid-19 is not appropriate”

  1. I agree with everything Sam says here. Though I believe the Scottish government could have done more to make us seem less dependent and reliant on uk gov’t policy.

    This is interesting: an open letter to the German chancellor, questions on government response. DunGroanin linked to it on Richard Murphys blog:

    https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

    It also looks like an interesting website and will be scouring it later.

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  2. Following several articles on TUSC concerning the BBC News website, I’ve become ‘fascinated’ by the editorial choices that are being revealed daily. (Note to self: don’t let this become an obsession!)

    On the BBC web site today, its ‘Wales’ page has this headline: ‘Coronavirus: How Wales’ approach differs from England’ (Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52094944 )

    It tells us: “Wales has been working closely with the UK government in its handling of the coronavirus pandemic but there have been some differences in how it is being dealt with compared to England.”

    The article sets out in some detail where the two countries’ responses are similar or different. And it includes positive statements regarding the differentiated Welsh response e.g. “Testing for front-line NHS staff in Wales has been going on since 18 March but the roll-out across England has only just started.” And adds: “The NHS in England has also come under fire for a lack of equipment and clothes makers have accused the UK government of wasting time by not asking them to help.”

    Anyone spotted a similar, informative account from the BBC on Scotland?

    It is also interesting to note that the BBC News site is keeping people in Northern Ireland up to date on more than ‘deaths’. I spotted this on the NI page today: “Three more coronavirus assessment centres have opened in Northern Ireland, with a further six to become operational this week.”

    Has anyone spotted more than a passing reference – maybe a headline or informative account – on the Scotland page of the BBC News site concerning the launch of the new Coronavirus Assessment Centres here far less their progressive roll out?

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    1. Thanks for the link Sam. This is a really interesting, historic account which reveals that the initial UK (and Scottish) government approach to the crisis was seemingly rooted in long held orthodoxy, itself based on prior ‘expert’ advice.

      Given this, I am now more willing to hold back from joining those all too ready to berate the present Scottish Government over its approach.

      Albeit belatedly, in this context the recently announced establishment of a new Covid-19 scientific advisory group by the Scottish Government is plainly necessary and to be welcomed.

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  4. They have been killing us softly for years without much or any media comment. For example, it is never reported that no Scottish government,whatever its colour has the powers necessary to address the fundamental causes of health inequalities in Scotland.

    Click to access dannydorling_publication_id7662.pdf

    That does not excuse this Scottish government from total inertia on the subject.There was, and is, much that could be done to raise awareness, to campaign in the most deprived communities, foster leadership among them, involve them in decision making on policy relating to health inequalities and participation in projects aimed at health and other inequalities.

    If you doubt the capacity of the Scottish government to create apathy in people take a look at the numbers who have viewed this important talk. Scotland talks a good game.

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  5. Thanks Sam for the video link and the Newstatesman piece. All very interesting.

    Alan Johnston’s statements, on the results of the 2009 exercise and the 2011 report, on the UK’s readiness to cope with a pandemic, were echoed again in the 2016 report, stemming from Exercise Cygnus (a report that was classified. Why?) All agree, the UK is ill prepared, lacking PPE and ventilators.

    The Cygnus report being discussed;
    https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/extraordinary-exchange-care-minister-coronavirus/

    I’m puzzled (an easy achievment) two papers that exposed this buried report is the Telegraph and the Mail. Could it be, the Tories seeing where this pandemic is going and the possible effects on their 80 seat majority, are getting ready to act? Regicide in torydom? And Gove doing his best to look a statesman, does he know what’s coming?

    Easily puzzzled but like Sir Percival I can sit with the question, and popcorn.

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