The evidence Tom Gorgon might have used if he wanted to inform us

From stewartb:

Mr Gordon and The Herald decide their preferred line – their ‘framing’ – as commercially they are of course fully entitled to do. So whilst I’m happy with ‘no shooting’ of messengers here, I’m also ‘happy’ with the TUSC providing robust (perhaps smaller – but strengthening?) counterweights to partial (and partisan?), context light/free coverage of important and complex matters.

There are numerous sources and metrics to draw on when commenting on the state of Scotland’s economy BEFORE the pandemic struck. Mr Gordon selected his metric – with its limitations. (The GDP numbers are as they are.) We can obtain useful context by using other information – given the focus is ‘pre-Coronavirus’.

For example see the following from the SCOTTISH BUSINESS MONITOR Q4 2019 published by the Fraser of Allander Institute (FOAI) on 6 February, 2020.

Source: https://www.addleshawgoddard.com/globalassets/insights/general/fraser-of-allander-business-monitor-report-q4-2019.pdf

Two extracts only from this Q4 survey::

“… expectations of future business activity and turnover over the next six months are at the highest level since the second quarter of 2014. Expectations of employment, capital investment and export activity also appear more optimistic.”

“… the uptick in expectations is widespread, with four out of five sectors more optimistic about the next six months than in the previous quarter, and all firms now in positive territory.”

So yes, much will have changed over a matter of weeks – and economically for the worse for more than just Scotland’s economy. And lest we forget, the FOAI report reminds us that the concerns of Scottish business over the fall-out from Brexit continued through to Q4 2019.

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