The Herald’s Tom Gordon presents a masterpiece of ambulance-chasing today as he warns us that the Coronavirus epidemic and the ensuing deaths have changed the political landscape, pushing Indyref2, perhaps even independence, into the long grass. SNP Civil Wars 1 to 3, Macdonald, Mackay and Salmond have all failed to halt the Indyref2 juggernaut but an epidemic will surely do it. His glee at, especially, the AUOB marchers being quarantined, is clear.
He even confidently predicts: ‘The virus will be more than a match for Nicola Sturgeon, Mr Johnson and their respective public services.’
Now, I can be a risk-taker but I predict now that there will emerge a clear gap between the performance of NHS Scotland and several parts of NHS England in how well they cope. While the Scottish MSM will do what they can to conceal this, they will be unable to hide the crises which must be expected in some NHS England areas. We’ve already had the most awful events there pre-Coronavirus. See:
NONE of the worst NHS scandals since devolution have been in Scotland
We also have early signs of greater resilience and capacity in the Scottish system:
NHS Scotland’s supply of beds far more ‘resilient’ than that in Johnson’s NHS England
Getting back to the idea that:
‘Despite the protestations of SNP MPs against columnists, the independence cause will suffer. Not necessarily because it will look like a bad fit for times of crisis. But because it will look like a decidedly second-order issue.’
this might be very wrong indeed. Differing performance by public services and the associated political and media narratives about that seems an obvious source of friction which might accelerate the desire for constitutional change as easily as suppress it. Indeed, any widespread awareness of how an independent Scotland stopped the Great Plague of 1665-1667 in its tracks will be food for thought:
‘The Great Plague of 1665-1667 did not reach Scotland. To a large extent, this was due to the preventive measures put into place by the Scottish government. The Privy Council passed a series of acts which forbid trade with countries affected by the plague, in particular England and the Netherlands. Even after the disease had dwindled there, further acts imposed a forty-day quarantine on goods imported from these places. Economically, such an interruption of trade was very disruptive, not least since England and the Netherlands were two of Scotland’s main trading partners.’
https://digital.nls.uk/learning/scots-plague-buik/plague-in-scotland/
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Jings! Just when you thought yoon desperation couldn’t get any more sick along comes Gordon with this! Next they’ll be hoping all indy supporters die from the virus!
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Two facts about the elderly , they are more likely to fall off the perch if they get the virus and they disproportionately vote against Indy . Boris had better rush through some special protection for this demographic then if he’s to maintain his precious union .
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That’s a good example, though rather old (obviously!), of how being independent can make a big difference.
Richard Murphy has been promoting one action that will relieve the financial burden on many that might get ill – and help people to self isolate so not spread the virus. He has suggested rent relief for a period of time for those that need it – already there is support for a mortgage freeze, and though rentiers will lose some income, they retain the asset (that is, if all renters evict folk for non payment, but then there is not enough people that can pay the rent because too many are ill, they need to sell, in a market where many other are doing so, so property loses its value etc). The government has made no move to bring this in, and there will be much resistance from renters. I’m not sure about social housing, I think they’ll need government guarantees and funding.
So, an organisation has started a petition to the uk government to bring this about; short piece from Richard Murphy and link (via Independent quote in the blog):
https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/03/14/the-time-for-rent-holidays-is-fast-approaching/
It’s expensive being ill, and already far too many people are living on the edge of affording basics, many people can’t afford to take any time off work, and wouldn’t for a sniffle. I think this move would go a long way to keeping people indoors that need to be.
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Richard Murphy’s idea is nonsensical, it will mean landlord’s cannot pay their mortgages and the tenants will be turfed out. Most landlords are not rich.
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I’ve heard all the arguments against the idea malc, and in the long run it makes sense. Some landlords, smaller ones, will struggle with the financial burden (which is where government comes in with free loans etc), but also many will not. And it’s about either potentially losing the asset, or taking a small temporary hit that will benefit the whole of society. People could be starving, ill and then homeless (and spreading the virus, or continuing to work to pay rent and spreading the virus) – it’s just for people that can’t afford basic living while ill, not a wholesale freeze on rents.
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Richard Murphy’s scheme involves a rent holiday for all renters. His idea is it needs to be done swiftly, and we can’t afford to divert effort to decide who gets the rent holiday.
He definitely meant everyone who rents from the Private Rented Sector (PRS); I think he says that social landlords and housing associations should get government support.
He also says PRS landlords will get a mortgage payment holiday for the same period. In effect, the end point of their repayment period is moved forward by the same period.
He says drastic measures are required to help with what he sees as the total chaos that will ensue due to Covid-19 (I agree). In part, this is because he believes Covid-19 is being very badly handled in the UK (like many others, I’m not sure about that), and he also thinks what Chancellor Sunak is doing economically is not nearly enough (he’s right about that). Initially he was talking about a 3 months rent holiday, but he would extend it further if the chaos lasts longer, and that seems likely.
I understand where Richard is coming from, but there are other factors which suggest to me that they could, and therefore should, work out a scheme which excludes renters who can afford to keep paying, There will be a lot of those, and not just in London.
I don’t believe Richard’s scheme takes account of the people who work in the PRS, providing property maintenance and repairs for example. This is particularly true in Scotland, where for years now we’ve had stronger regulation of property safety and repair standards, and much stronger regulations applied to PRS landlords and letting agents.
The same is not true elsewhere in the UK, which may be colouring Richard’s take on this.
There are many firms who rely on the PRS for most of their income, and they employ lots of people – many of whom are on modest incomes. Some of those employees will end up self-isolating, and if the employers are starved of income at the same time, all the other employees will lose their income because the firms will be bankrupt.
It’s probably impossible to estimate the overall effects, but any scheme which more or less guarantees unemployment must surely be worth improving. I think there are ways to improve Richard’s plan as, for example, HMRC will know who has become unemployed by looking at PAYE records and they would get the rent holiday. Anyone who receives social security benefits, especially Universal Credit, would obviously get the rent holiday when they self-isolate.
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Ah yes, Richard does indeed suggest wholesale rent holiday. The actual petition doesn’t though, i should have clarified. Those are good points about maintenance Indyref2soon(ish).
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The landlords would have a mortgage holiday, offsetting the loss of rent.
Richard explained it in detail, much more clearly than I can.
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I don’t know how much leeway the Scottish government has, but the policy being set from “the UK” is in my mind wrong. The death toll could be horrendous.
If they can, the Scottish government should follow leads set by Norway, Ireland, New Zealand etc.
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Some useful info and facts here from Kevin Stewart – https://blogs.gov.scot/fairer-scotland/2020/03/13/ending-homelessness-together-and-protecting-vulnerable-people/
“Our main focus at the meeting was Covid-19 and how it will impact those who are experiencing, or at risk of experiencing homelessness, including anyone who is rough sleeping.”
“I was also proud to share our latest quarterly statistics on new housebuilding and affordable housing which shows we have now delivered over 91,000 affordable homes since 2007, with more than 63,000 for social rent.”
Plus, following the link to the Drugs Death Taskforce, details which I don’t recall being mentioned in the press – https://blogs.gov.scot/drug-deaths-taskforce/2020/01/23/kindness-compassion-and-hope/
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I don’t often read MSM articles, but here is an archived version of Tom Gordon’s piece if anyone would like to read it
https://archive.li/sbN3e
I do enjoy the irony: ‘no one should be obsessing about indy, so here I am obsessing about it’.
I didn’t notice the SNP prioritising independence, did I miss something?
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Pandering to desperate Unionist readers exposes the hacks!
There have been newspaper articles in recent days implying that in a public health emergency such as we are facing now, the population of an independent Scotland would suffer because we would no longer be able to benefit from co-operation and sharing with our nearest neighbour.
Of course this is simply fear-mongering by desperate Unionists – or by journalists who make a living out of pandering to desperate Unionists. We have shown previously on TUSC how Nordic countries co-operate as a matter of common practice on health, social care and range of other public policy areas.
Today we learn of the prime ministers of two Commonwealth countries on OPPOSITE SIDES of world agreeing to co-operate in the context of the present emergency.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-call-with-prime-minister-of-australia-scott-morrison-14-march-2020
We are told of a phone call between Johnson and the Australian PM: “The Prime Minister and Prime Minister Morrison also agreed on the need for international coordination as the crisis continues, particularly to ensure countries have access to the healthcare equipment and supplies they need to tackle the outbreak.”
Are we to believe pro-Unionist hacks that Westminster would refuse to adopt a co-operative attitude towards an indy Scotland, its nearest neighbour with whom it shares a land border? Of course the proposition that it would not – opting instead for (mutual) DIS-BENEFIT- is simply preposterous!
Hopefully the Scottish public who rely only on the corporate media and the BBC for their information see through such nonsense for themselves.
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When pandering to desperate Unionist readers exposes the hacks (2)!
Do England’s public services have resilience issues?
We learn that the Westminster government is planning to follow the lead of the Scottish Government and introduce a ban on ‘mass events’.
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51882897
The Guardian online states: ‘UK set to ban mass gatherings – government source: In the UK, mass gatherings are set to be banned as part of the battle against coronavirus in a significant shift in the government’s position, the Press Association reports. A Whitehall source has told the news agency: Ministers are working with the chief scientific adviser and chief medical officer on our plan to stop various types of public event, including mass gatherings, beginning next week.”
So what has happened? When a similar intervention was raised last week by the Scottish Government the Prime Minister deemed it appropriate to make snide remarks about Scotland’s public services. His comments were (gleefully) reported by the Express and others:
‘Boris Johnson takes BRUTAL swipe at Sturgeon’s NHS in emergency coronavirus announcement – BORIS JOHNSON couldn’t resist hitting out at Nicola Sturgeon’s plans to tackle the coronavirus in Scotland, as he emphasised “issues” of “resilience” for her health service.’ The Express reports him as saying: “.. in Scotland, they do have particular issues with the resilience of their public services.” (the emphasis is that of the Express)
Source: https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1254483/Nicola-Sturgeon-news-boris-johnson-coronavirus-statement-emergency-SNP-NHS-latest
Given the anticipated u-turn in Westminster policy, will the Express – or any other journalist – ask the PM if there are ‘particular issues’ evident now with the resilience of England’s NHS or other public services?
Or has Johnson’s government realised its error and now accepts the wisdom of the Scottish Government? The Scottish public who rely only on the corporate media and the BBC may never know.
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