
Based on their usual bean-counting and blinkered ‘analysis’, the FROFALINS announce via the Herald:
Independence would be an inherently more “radical” and economically disruptive event after Brexit than in 2014, one of Scotland’s leading think-tanks has said.The Fraser of Allander Institute said the UK’s departure from the EU would shatter the Yes campaign’s past assurances that independence would be marked by “continuity”.
Off course, they are correct, but only in stating the bloody obvious, that if Scotland has to re-join the EU after Brexit negotiations are complete, that will be more complex than just staying in would have been, but ‘radical’ and ‘economically disruptive’ are value judgements of the kind economists regularly bicker over because, as it usually turns out, they didn’t really have a scoobie until after the event.
Even if they’re correct and Scotland had a year or two of adjustments, what really matters in the medium to long term consequences of re-joining and these are clear and undisputed. The obvious evidence lies just across the sea in Ireland:
For more than four decades now European Union membership has helped improve almost every aspect of Irish life, from how we work, travel and shop to the quality of our environment, our opportunities for learning and the way our businesses buy and sell their goods and services. These changes are now so much a part of everyday life that we can thankfully take them for granted. Even though we were an independent country long before we joined the European Union, Ireland in 1973 was still economically dependent on the UK and struggling to find its feet in the international community. That’s no longer the case, and Ireland now exports all over the world and influences global events through its voice in the European Union.
https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/about-us/impact-of-EU-membership-on-Ireland_en
No doubt someone will suggest that EU membership has been less beneficial for Greece or Portugal or some Easter European countries but only Ireland is really helpfully comparable in terms of cultural similarity.
And, as for the threat of having to use the Euro:


We don’t hear much about how catastrophic it will be for Scotland to leave the EU from them , they have been extremely quiet on the subject of Brexit and the true damage it will do to Scotland . Scotland looking to forge forward to stay in the EU is a no no from Fraser of Allander , it will all be doom and gloom on Scotland’s economy from now on , there will be no positives from them , they are Unionists, they want Scotland as a country to be dependant on England to keep us firmly in our box .
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You could also have cited the use of the academically rigorously precise term ‘shatter’.
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John, we couldnt use the Euro on independence, and for some time afterwards – they are just spouting guff (and some of it contadictory). Andrew Neil, interviewing the FM, said we couldnt join for 10 years because we wouldnt have our own currency till then, but it hasnt stopped the tsunami of “you’ll have to join the Euro”. They dont understand the difference between “joining the Euro” and “commit to joining the Euro” which the Swedes did in 1995 and we are still waiting (they even had a referendum!).
I can see the difficulties in making the commitment to joining the Euro without our own currency (which we would be better to admit rather than dancing round it) but there is a substantial body of thought that says our own currency, if not launched on independence (which is a big ask as setting up your own country wont be straightforward) then it could be done in three years, maybe five. In that period, the EU would be likely to at least, agree and association agreement which could grant Single Market access as long as there is regulatory alignment, and even freedom of movement.
In short the Euro poses us challenges, but there is nothing that cannot be managed, but of course they don’t want to see that.
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