We’ve all known for some time, in a general sense, that a hard Brexit will punish food exporters but, today, I found out in more detail and the costs seem unsustainable. Looking at the WTO Tariff Download Facility, you can get the tariffs for any product being exported into any country from any other country, using either WTO rules or, if you have a trade deal in place, some kind of favoured nation status.
Before proceeding it’s worth noting that EU Most Favoured Nation status seems pretty unlikely for the UK:
‘Most Favoured Nation clauses contained in EU’s trade agreements could limit the EU’s willingness to offer the UK better treatment in a future trade deal, as it would be required to extend the same treatment ‘for free’ to a number of its existing FTA partners.’
So, for lamb:
For most favoured nations it’s 171.3 EUR per 100 kg or for WTO rules it’s $5361 per tonne.
For most favoured nations, it’s 176.8 EUR per 100kg and for WTO rules its $4208 per tonne
For most fish:
For most favoured nations it’s zero but for WTO rules it’s more than $2000 per tonne.
I think it’s currently a zero tariff on all food exports from the UK to the EU. Also, getting MFN status would mean, at least, current levels of access to UK fishing waters.