Voting Conservative in Ayrshire is business unfriendly as their promised support for a Boris Brexit means these devastating costs for farmers, fishermen and food exporters

The ‘outgoing’ MP

We’ve all known for some time, in a general sense, that a hard Brexit will punish food exporters but, today, I found out in more detail and the costs seem unsustainable. Looking at the WTO Tariff Download Facility, you can get the tariffs for any product being exported into any country from any other country, using either WTO rules or, if you have a trade deal in place, some kind of favoured nation status.

Before proceeding it’s worth noting that EU Most Favoured Nation status seems pretty unlikely for the UK:

‘Most Favoured Nation clauses contained in EU’s trade agreements could limit the EU’s willingness to offer the UK better treatment in a future trade deal, as it would be required to extend the same treatment ‘for free’ to a number of its existing FTA partners.’

Most Favoured Nation clauses in EU trade agreements: one more hurdle for UK negotiators

So, for lamb:

For most favoured nations it’s 171.3 EUR per 100 kg or for WTO rules it’s $5361 per tonne.

For beef:

For most favoured nations, it’s 176.8 EUR per 100kg and for WTO rules its $4208 per tonne

For most fish:

For most favoured nations it’s zero but for WTO rules it’s more than $2000 per tonne.

I think it’s currently a zero tariff on all food exports from the UK to the EU. Also, getting MFN status would mean, at least, current levels of access to UK fishing waters.

Published by johnrobertson834

Retired Professor of Media Politics Not-for-profit independent political analysis

7 thoughts on “Voting Conservative in Ayrshire is business unfriendly as their promised support for a Boris Brexit means these devastating costs for farmers, fishermen and food exporters

  1. Hi John – Newsnet.Scotland carrying some useful associated info today – Good to see such a respected business figure in the fishing industry cut through all the britnat media spin and come out to publicly back SNP policy (and that the P+J carry the story). Also useful info re. quadrupling of sales value of nephrops catch over a 4 year period. Link and snippets below:

    William Tait snr of Fraserburgh-based Klondyke Fishing Company called on fishermen to now back the SNP at the general election on 12th December according to a report in the Press & Journal.

    In 2013 the combined value of North Sea and West Coast Nephrops landings amounted to £18,185,000. In 2017 combined landings had risen to £72,393,000. Within just 4 years the value of Scottish Nephrops landed quadrupled in value.

    The market for Nephrops is Europe, and small fishermen rely on this market to earn a living. Any interruption in getting their product to market will have devastating consequences, on top of which, UK fishing businesses outside the Single Market will be required to provide paperwork and veterinary certificates for every catch sold at market or bought by one of the main processors.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Hi John. Beeb Scotland is carrying the Scotrail improved timetable story – but – in this reader’s view – NOT offering the story the same sort of prominence that we routinely see with their more frequent ‘Scotrail Are Rubbish’ (and Scotland by extension is also rubbish) pieces.

    Anyway – In view of the major improvements Scotrail has announced (including opening the NEW station at Robroyston) it is clear that HUMZA MUST GO!. Link and snippets below:

    ScotRail has vowed that the latest changes to timetables across the country will add 10,000 extra seats for passengers each day.

    The improvements, which include a new station at Robroyston in the north of Glasgow, take effect on 15 December.

    Among the key differences is a sharp rise in services in the north east and more carriages on busy commuter lines in the central belt and Fife.

    ScotRail said the changes, which include 1,500 more seats on the Borders Railway and extra seats between Edinburgh and Glasgow, will have a positive impact.

    The operator said a new timetable between Inverurie, Dyce and Aberdeen would provide more than 50% more services.

    The route between Edinburgh and Glasgow via Falkirk High will now have eight carriages for every peak service.

    ScotRail claims there are more than 2,400 trains running every weekday, an increase of 9% from 10 years ago.

    Further timetable improvements will be delivered in May and December 2020.

    (NOTE the illuminating wording applied “..Scottrail CLAIMS there are more than 2,400 trains running every weekday…an increase of 9% from 10 yrs ago (ie under SNP Scottish Govt stewardship period) – Either there are the stats to back this up or there aren’t – So why frame it as “..Scotrail CLAIMS..”? – Beeb just can’t help themselves, can they?).

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Hi all. Beeb Scotland did carry this piece reporting ONS figures on the very encouraging drop in alcohol related death rates in Scotland this century – but it was a case of ‘blink and you missed it’. I’d noticed it yesterday early evening and had to search hard for it today by lunchtime! Link and snippets below:

    Death rates caused by alcohol have dropped in Scotland in the past 10 years, according to new figures.

    Scotland is the only UK nation where the rate dropped this century, despite a slight increase for women last year.

    However, the Office of National Statistics said it was still twice that of England, where death rates rose.

    Charities said it gave cause for optimism that minimum unit pricing was working, but warned that further action was needed to curb alcohol harm.

    The Scottish government introduced minimum unit pricing in May 2018 in a bid to cut consumption and save lives.

    The new report said: “Despite Scotland’s higher rate of alcohol-specific deaths, it remains the only UK constituent country to show statistically significant improvement when comparing with 2001 rates.

    “In comparison, both England and Wales had statistically significant increases over the same period.”

    For men, the alcohol-specific death rate has decreased in Scotland by 25% this century, while for women the rate has fallen by 10% over the same period.

    There were 29.4 deaths per 100,000 men in Scotland last year, down from 37.6 in 2008. The lowest UK rate was in England where there were 14.8 male deaths per 100,000.

    For women, the rate rose to 13.1 per 100,000 from 11.6 in 2017, but was still significantly lower than the 15.2 rate in 2008.

    Alison Douglas, chief executive of Alcohol Focus Scotland, said: “Data published earlier this year showed that consumption in Scotland reduced by 3% in 2018.

    “This gives us cause for optimism that minimum unit pricing appears to be having an effect on how much we are drinking and this should translate into improvements in health and wellbeing and fewer deaths.”

    A report published earlier this year showed that sales of alcohol in Scotland dropped following the change in the law.

    (Looking at those figures one can see precisely why the SNP Scottish Govt stuck to their guns and pushed through the raft of reforms to alcohol policy – in the face of MASSIVE political resistance from the britnat parties and britnat media – Truly these britnat poodles are living with a very strange (and damaging) political worldview).

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Hi all – This beeb article which gives favourable mention to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon (and, positively, brackets Nicola with 2 other national leaders – those of Iceland and New Zealand) was cunningly positioned in the beeb Science pages! – If the story did appear on the beeb Scotland pages then I certainly missed it – and so must a heck of a lot of us). Beeb Science webpage comes up trumps again. Link and snippets below:

    Iceland’s prime minister has urged governments to adopt green and family-friendly priorities, instead of just focusing on economic growth figures.

    Katrin Jakobsdottir has teamed up with Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and New Zealand’s PM Jacinda Ardern to promote a “well-being” agenda.

    Ms Jakobsdottir called for “an alternative future based on well-being and inclusive growth”.

    She said new social indicators were needed besides traditional GDP data.

    GDP’s focus on economic performance means it tends to undervalue quality of life and the social damage caused by inequality.

    Ms Jakobsdottir said an Icelandic poet had joked that “having sex with your wife doesn’t count in GDP, but with a prostitute it does”.

    While acknowledging Iceland’s progress in family-friendly policies, she said her nation – with a population of just 350,000 – still had big challenges, such as improving public transport and tackling depression.

    “Iceland uses more anti-depressants than neighbouring countries,” she said. “We need to strengthen prevention [of depression], through sports and the arts.”

    In a TED talk in August, Scotland’s Nicola Sturgeon made a similar plea for modern economies to put more resources into mental health, childcare and parental leave, and green energy.

    She said the “well-being” initiative promoted by herself, Ms Sturgeon and Ms Ardern should not be seen as a gender-based backlash against populism.

    “It’s very important to have all genders at the table – it affects the way you think, and then different decisions are made,” she said.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Another (sensible and socially just) brick was, today, cemented in place in the edifice of the New and Better Scotland we are, together, building. Get out there and vote SNP folks, bring that better future another step closer still. Link and snippets below:

    Private schools are to have their charitable status removed and be made to pay business rates, the Scottish government has confirmed.

    The announcement means the schools will no longer get relief of up to 20% on their bills for non-domestic rates.

    The change, recommended three years ago, will come into effect on 1 September next year.

    There are 51 private schools in Scotland, including famous institutions like Gordonstoun and Fettes.

    Inclusion of fee-paying schools in non-domestic rate payments was recommended in the Barclay Review.

    Public finance minister Kate Forbes confirmed the new law would be incorporated into the Non-Domestic Rates (Scotland) Bill, currently in its second stage.

    Under the legislation, schools would lose their charity relief unless they were responsible for teaching children with additional support needs.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. I am not an expert on these and other matters but as a 70yr old I am of the opinion that this is all part of the Tory master plan to destroy Scotland’s economy by a hundred cuts which will give them the excuse to retain at Westminster what should be Devolved areas under the ‘Sewell’ convention and ultimately remove all powers from Holyrood. We all know Tories desire direct rule with the colonisation of Scotland as the end goal. As climate change hits many areas in southern England, Scotland’s key natural wealth resources will become increasingly important. My view is unless Scotland breaks away from the UK in the next 2/5 years we shall cease to exist as a country.

    Liked by 2 people

  7. Great comments , hope you all realise there is now a vacancy where Wings used to be .Stu Campbell is losing bloggers by the score because a) he no longer gives any statistics and analysis of Unionist behaviour and b) he is now totally anti SNP and especially Nicola Sturgeon, calling for her resignation . In other words, he has been “got at ” and is following instructions from who knows where , so to all you dedicated bloggers for Indyref2 seize the day .

    John your site will become more and more important now with your analytical work , hope you can keep up the challenge.


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