Leading Academic seems to be saying that Scotland’s accession to the EU would be a shoe-in!

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Sturgeon glee!

Even the Englander Daily Express knows it:

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Now, leading academic (not me this time folks), Kirsty Hughes of the Scottish Centre on European Relations at the English University of Edinburgh, appears to be saying ‘it’s a shoe-in’ or in Nicola’s case a stylish ‘stiletto-in.’

Hughes writes like an academic so if you don’t fancy reading the whole thing (I’m not saying you couldn’t. Don’t get huffy!) I’ve extracted the tastier morsels for you:

Any European state that respects the EU’s values can apply to join the EU (as article 49 of the Treaty on European Union states). It’s what happens next that determines the road – or not – of any applicant to EU accession. An independent Scotland would have the unusual characteristics of having recently been a part of an EU member state and having only recently gained independence – both of these characteristics could impact [positively] on its path to the EU.

If Scotland’s independence had been based on a constitutionally and legally sound process, then as a small advanced economy and democracy, this process would look more straightforward than, for instance, it was for the countries of central and eastern Europe in the 1990s who were rebuilding democratic institutions and market economies after decades as part of the Soviet bloc. And the impact of Brexit, and of Scotland’s remain vote, on EU attitudes to Scottish independence has been to soften or remove the political negativity on display in 2014 – when there was no wish amongst EU leaders to help the potential break up of a then member state.

But in the face of a legally, constitutionally sound independence process, it would be surprising if Scotland were not given a green light to candidate status. And off-the-record, it is common to hear from officials and commentators from a range of EU member states, that accession of an independent Scotland would not pose any major challenges.

Even so, overall, as a small European state that met the Copenhagen criteria and that was, Brexit notwithstanding, in a relatively stable part of Europe, Scotland would most likely move relatively swiftly to accession negotiations with the EU after achieving candidate status.

AND remember this when someone shouts in your face that Scotland couldn’t join because of our ‘budget deficit’:

On the euro, Scotland would very likely not meet the criteria for joining the euro, including on the budget deficit. So, it would be a member state ‘with a derogation’ of which there are currently SEVEN (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden). The UK and Denmark have actual opt-outs and are in a different position. Whether and when Scotland would meet the criteria for joining the euro is a matter of debate but once inside the EU, joining the euro would be done with its agreement.

AND if they also shout in your face about the border with England:

An independent Scotland’s future relationship with rUK would be negotiated across many dimensions during the period between an independence vote and the actual date of independence. But if Scotland joined the EU, then the trading relationship between Scotland and rUK would be determined by whatever UK-EU relationship was agreed post-Brexit (unless the UK remained in the EU). The Scotland-rUK border would be an EU border.

There is no reason for the EU to treat Scotland as a special case (in particular as the Northern Ireland deal was driven by the need to protect the peace process and is very much a one-off, unique deal but also as Scotland would be independent not part of the UK still).

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One thought on “Leading Academic seems to be saying that Scotland’s accession to the EU would be a shoe-in!

  1. Re the post about EU membership being a shoo-in and specifically about the supposed problem of Scotland joining because of our “budget deficit” it” important to recognise that this “deficit” is potentially fictional given the paucity of actual Scotland-specific data. Much of the noise about this stems from GERS, which is increasingly being discredited and illustrates supposed economic position that results from the UK status quo, not independence.

    Also, why would Scotland see to join the Euro? Opinion now is strongly behind having our own currency. Adopting someone else’s currency effectively means adopting their economic policies.

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