‘Very large…transformational’ oil find in Moray Firth yet Edinburgh prof said North Sea oil was finished

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Somewhat hidden down the ‘page’ in Insider magazine today and nowhere in Scotland’s NoMedia:

Chief executive Majid Shafiq said: “The discovery of the Serenity oilfield, a potentially very large oil resource, is a transformational event for i3 Energy plc. We now have proven oil in a second structure on our licenses. It is the culmination of three years of detailed geological and reservoir analysis and validates our regional model for the Liberator and Serenity oilfields and neighbouring structures. London-based i3 said it it now expects to produce 63 million barrels in phase one and is targeting 396 million barrels in phase two at Liberator, and 197 million barrels from Serenity.

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/north-sea-oil-explorer-makes-20747050

Remember this?

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At the time we reported:

Professor Thompson of Edinburgh University’s school of Geosciences said: ‘an analysis of production decline in offshore fields showed the industry is entering its final decade.’

Before going any further, I take it he’s not referring to or considering the massive discoveries already made west of Shetland? See:

Estimates of Scotland’s oil reserves West of Shetland now massively increased to around 8 billion barrels! ‘A super-resource now on the cards.’

Professor Thompson says also: ‘we need a bold transition to renewables, energy storage, improved insulation and energy efficiencies.’ I agree but aren’t we making good progress on this already? See:

Scotland’s energy 100% renewable by 2030?

Returning to the main point though, that we have only 10 years left. Already the Industry body, Oil and Gas UK (OGUK), has challenged the prediction that North Sea oil and gas reserves will run out in 10 years. Here’s an extract from their response in Energy Voice:

‘BP’s Quad 204 project started producing in May and is expected to deliver 450million barrels of oil equivalent through to 2035 and beyond. Statoil’s Mariner field, slated for first oil next year, could pump out 250million barrels over a 30-year period. BP’s Clair Ridge project is designed to continue producing until 2050.’

Add to the above evidence, the Wall Street Journal’s report yesterday headed:

‘The North Sea Is Suddenly, Surprisingly, an Oil Hot Spot’

See this extract from their report:

‘After almost a decade of decline, the North Sea energy industry is experiencing a flurry of deal activity. Major oil players say they are looking at growth in the area, and private-equity funds have built up war chests totalling $15 billion for North Sea acquisitions. Investors have sunk more than $16 billion so far this year into European deals for assets mostly located in the North Sea, a flurry that far outstrips energy deal activity in all but American shale country and Canada’s oil sands, according to Edinburgh-based energy-consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. The biggest deal came last month, with Total SA’s $5 billion purchase of A.P. Moeller-Maersk ’s North Sea-focused oil-and-gas business. Royal Dutch Shell PLC is planning to spend $600 million to $1 billion a year in the North Sea in the coming years, while BP PLC expects to double its production there by 2020.’

Is it possible that the Professor’s team’s enthusiasm for renewables, which I share, has made them a little unprofessional or careless in their assessment of oil reserves? They’re academics. They wouldn’t be selective with the evidence just to make a point, would they? Prof Thompson is English. He wouldn’t be strongly opposed to Scottish independence, would he?

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/the-north-sea-is-suddenly-surprisingly-an-oil-hot-spot-1505826001

Published by johnrobertson834

Retired Professor of Media Politics Not-for-profit independent political analysis

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