Does the SNP need a non-binary leader as last 5 Indy polls now ‘stuck’ on average 49.6666% for Yes?

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The last five polls on Scottish Independence suggest that it is now too close to call but within the latest there is interesting evidence on the young, the older and on women voters. More on this below but first the polls:

The Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times with 1003 Scots with fieldwork on 9-11 October puts support for independence at 50%.

https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/Sunday-Times-Tables-for-publication-111019.pdf

This poll also has support for independence at 54% to 46% if the UK left the EU with no deal and 56%  (DNs removed) thinking we’d be better off economically.

The YouGov/Times poll 30 August to 3 September put it at 49%.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/o91qppx58r/TheTimes_190903_ScotlandVI_Trackers_ww.pdf

The Lord Ashcroft poll on 30 July – 2 August 2019 put support for independence at 52%.

Lord Ashcroft: My new Scotland poll. Yes to Independence takes the lead.

Two YouGov polls in April 2019 and on September 4th both put support at 49%.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/04549dc4-ce9a-11e9-bac7-3a108794927b

I am, of course, ignoring the irregular question, Scotland in Chains, survey. The average of those five surveys is 49.6666% so, before any campaign, we’re even. What are the odds, we win a referendum? BoyleSports have cut the odds to 8/11.

Back to the electorate. Remember how we worried that women didn’t like Alex Salmond and would lose us the referendum in 2014? Well, in the Panelbase poll, SNP support is only 39% but it’s 51% among women aged 16-34! Among men of the same age, it’s only 42%. However, even more dramatically, support for independence in this group is way ahead of all the others at 71%, for women and 66% for men. In sharp contrast, women over 55 don’t seem to have been swayed by Nicola and, curiously, are the least likely to vote Yes (35%) and least likely to vote for the SNP (31%). Men over 55 are a bit more likely to vote Yes (41%) and for the SNP (34%) – paternalism?

Would a non-binary leader help?

Published by johnrobertson834

Retired Professor of Media Politics Not-for-profit independent political analysis

9 thoughts on “Does the SNP need a non-binary leader as last 5 Indy polls now ‘stuck’ on average 49.6666% for Yes?

  1. 2 words

    1st word a very trendy 60’s name with connections to a comedic actress

    Second word, not a fish but edible.

    When, just not yet

    Like

  2. Meanwhile (grabbing coffee) and noticed good stuff on news.gov.scot. Today’s figures
    regarding ‘outcomes’ for graduates of Scotland’s College sector continuing to show excellent results. SNP Scottish Govt and YES majority Parlt delivering for Scotland’s colleges which are delivering for Scotland’s economy. The new and better Scotland’s virtuous interaction of educational, social, employment and economic assets gradually replacing the centuries of neglect and desperate ad hoc arrangements observable when under the control of the London party branch offices. Link and snippets below:

    https://news.gov.scot/news/more-college-leavers-heading-straight-into-work

    Efforts to offer different paths into employment bearing fruit.

    More college graduates opted to start work last year, according to latest statistics.

    There was a 2.2% rise in college leavers entering employment in 2018, up to 49.3%, Scottish Funding Council data published today shows. Other findings include:

    • 95.4% of college qualifiers now go on to a ‘positive destination’ such as further study at college or university, training or employment, up from 95% the previous year
    • 39.8% of people leaving college in the period progressed to university

    The findings also reveal more people from the 10% most deprived area were more likely to start work (around 48%) after leaving college, than those from the 10% least deprived areas (around 41%).

    Like

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