SNP support NOT really a falling trend in recent polls

There’s been some anxiety expressed about an apparent recent dip in support for the SNP shown in the last 4 sub-polls.

Opinium/Observer had them at 38% for 3-4 October. YouGov/Times had them at 35% for 30 September to 1 October. YouGov/Sunday Times had them at 38% for 24-25 September. Opinium/Observer had them at 37% for 25-27 September.

At first sight it seems like evidence of a fairly real fall from solid >40% figures for most of this year. However, unusually, Opinium did not tell us what the results would be with the don’t knows removed but we can easily produce those. With that done, the SNP score would be above 40% in both. I make it 43.33% (52 out of 120) for 3-4 October and 46.7% (51 out of 109) for 25-27 September.

Given the unreliability of sub-polls we need to average a group to get any kind of picture. Doing that we get 40.7%. in the period 24 September to 4 October and thus no significant change.

Published by johnrobertson834

Retired Professor of Media Politics Not-for-profit independent political analysis

One thought on “SNP support NOT really a falling trend in recent polls

  1. SNP Scottish Govt and YES majority Scottish Parlt constantly working hard to assist Scotland’s farmers. A couple of weeks ago Fergus Ewing SNP Cabinet Secretary for Agriculture announced increased loans of 95% (up from previous 90% level) of Basic Payment Scheme payments to Scottish farmers. (https://news.gov.scot/news/cap-loans-underway : Investment released to help mitigate impacts of Brexit.
    Loans providing financial support to farmers in advance of Brexit will arrive in bank accounts from 4 October.Under the National Basic Payment Support Scheme, more than 13,450 eligible farmers will receive up to 95% of their Basic Payment Scheme 2019 payments – an increase of 5% on previous years – totalling £327.17 million.)

    Today news.gov.scot carries latest Scottish farm production stats. Further encouraging news about rises in both cereal production and sheep numbers – plus steady numbers in dairy herd and poultry. ALSO – a most welcome 1% increase in the agricultural workforce (to 67,100 jobs). Please take note Scotland’s farmers and rural electorate. Link and snippets below:
    https://news.gov.scot/news/favourable-weather-helps-farming-recover
    Better winter planting conditions helped the area of cereals grown to recover over the past year and the data showed total area of cereals increased by 10,600 hectares to 437,000 hectares. Barley, which is Scotland’s biggest crop, rose by one per cent and it was a similar picture for wheat which increased by eight per cent. The increase in area was due to a recovery in the area of winter planted crops.
    The total sheep count rose by one per cent, or 82,700 with lamb numbers rising by four percent. The number of breeding ewes remained fairly steady, rising by less than one per cent.
    The data shows the total number of cattle dropped by two per cent or 27,600. Despite the drop, the number of dairy cattle remained fairly constant over the past year.
    In addition to these statistics, the number of people estimated to be working in agriculture has increased slightly by approximately one per cent to 67,100.

    Like

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