Do the folk at Ipsos MORI know something as they regularly predict a Yes vote and SNP success over 9 years?

The Ipsos MORI pollster, in the National today, has Yes on 53% with a 6 point lead. In November they had Yes on 51% and an 8 point lead. These two, plus one for Find Out Now, were a minority in a sea of 11 No leads since October 2023. Overall the picture (above) has been dominated by No leads from several pollsters but there’s a pattern going back to August 2015, when, in a sea of No leads , Ipsos MORI had a 9 point lead for Yes. From there forward to the present, Ipsos MORI have had 14 … Continue reading Do the folk at Ipsos MORI know something as they regularly predict a Yes vote and SNP success over 9 years?

NHS Scotland does 97% of ops on time

From Public Health Scotland, today: In the quarter ending December 2023, there were 20,837 operations planned to take place across NHS Scotland. Only 515 (2.5%) were cancelled by the hospital due to capacity or non-clinical reasons. From Public Health Scotland a year ago: In the quarter ending December 2022, the total number of planned operations across NHS Scotland during December 2022 was 17,269. This represents a decrease of 19.1% from 21,336 in November 2022 but is 14.6% higher than the number planned in December 2021. 493 (2.9%) were cancelled by the hospital due to capacity or non-clinical reasons. From these data, … Continue reading NHS Scotland does 97% of ops on time

How Labour’s plan for small business has been at the heart of the SNP legislation for years

Not for the first Labour advisers reveal their ignorance of what is already happening in Scotland as they come up to tell us about their supah new ideas to find we already have the same or better. Here’s what they claim and what they plan, responded to one-by-one. “The Labour Party knows the value of small businesses; you are not just the lifeblood of our communities but essential to our economic success. That is why we have launched an ambitious plan to support small businesses.” “The Scottish Government regrets any delays in payments to suppliers and our performance in paying 98.8% … Continue reading How Labour’s plan for small business has been at the heart of the SNP legislation for years

Can anyone recall any interrogation of witnesses or any media assessment around the ACTUAL content of key Cabinet papers?

stewartb ‘Could the Covid inquiry reshape the UK?’ – this is the headline above a piece by James Cook on the BBC News website today. Mr Cook is of course BBC Scotland’s political editor whose team of journalists has been working hard to amplify the alleged ‘significance’ of WhatsApp messaging more than anything else in news reports on the Covid Inquiry’s Edinburgh sessions. Having feasted on the Inquiry’s references to WhatsApps, Mr Cook seems to have belatedly become aware of the journalistic relevance of ‘perspective’. He writes today: ‘ Not so many years ago many of the conversations now under … Continue reading Can anyone recall any interrogation of witnesses or any media assessment around the ACTUAL content of key Cabinet papers?

GDP – Does any other country have to ignore its offshore activity to make it seem to be in trouble?

From the Scottish Government (!) today: Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in November. This follows a contraction of 0.6% in October (revised from -0.5%). In the three months to November, GDP is estimated to have contracted by 0.2% compared to the previous three month period. This indicates a slowing of growth, relative to the increase of 0.4% in 2023 Quarter 3 (July to September). Try searching for the word ‘offshore’ in the full report. Not a mention. But what, I hear you say about those booming energy revenues from oil, gas and renewables? You know, … Continue reading GDP – Does any other country have to ignore its offshore activity to make it seem to be in trouble?

SNP drug death prevention programme leading to massive fall in ambulance call-outs and hospital admissions

Opiates and opioids, including heroin, morphine and methadone, are implicated in more than 8 out of 10 drug related deaths in Scotland. The picture is the same globally. Naloxone is a medication designed to rapidly reverse opioid overdose. It is an opioid antagonist—meaning that it binds to opioid receptors and can reverse and block the effects of other opioids, such as heroin, morphine, and oxycodone. Scotland was the first country in the world, in 2021, to implement a national naloxone programme, which saw take-home naloxone (THN) given to those released from prison and distributed to community drug services. Naloxone provision has since been … Continue reading SNP drug death prevention programme leading to massive fall in ambulance call-outs and hospital admissions

Edinburgh flats fire today – Gee, I wonder why the building did not have to be evacuated?

From BBC Scotland today: A man has died in a fire at a block of flats in Edinburgh. Four fire engines and a height appliance were dispatched to the blaze in Calder Gardens at about 00:45. Crews were able to extinguish the blaze, but a 56-year-old man was pronounced dead at the scene. No one else was injured in the incident and the building did not have to be evacuated. None of the media have sought to link this to Grenfell for obvious reasons. Why was there not a Grenfell incident? For any new readers and folk you might share … Continue reading Edinburgh flats fire today – Gee, I wonder why the building did not have to be evacuated?

Bowel cancer ebbs after Sturgeon scheme started screening earlier than in rest of UK

So, facts, actual news, ‘bowel’, colorectal cancer cases fall by 20% in males and 10% in females over the last ten years, in Scotland. The Daily Record today? The Herald has the same story. Based on this: https://www.annalsofoncology.org/article/S0923-7534(23)05110-4/fulltext#%20 in March 2023, BBC Scotland did note: Public Health Scotland said the 2020 fall in numbers was “largely due to under-diagnosis caused by Covid restrictions”, including the temporary pause of screening programmes. Why have cases declined in Scotland longer term? Bowel cancer screening uptake in Scotland reaches a record high! Why might the UK researchers in the Record report be pessimistic? From … Continue reading Bowel cancer ebbs after Sturgeon scheme started screening earlier than in rest of UK

The Covid Inquiry evidence unreported by BBC Scotland – can ‘bias by omission’ get any worse? 

By stewartb ‘An important feature of the pandemic response of the Scottish Government was a pre-existing culture of professionalism, engagement, and collaboration, which, in the Covid-19 pandemic translated into a willingness to look outside of government for advice and expertise.’  On Scottish Government actions: ’Rather than divergence demonstrating political opportunism, it reflected better decision-making processes including more effective and meaningful consultation with others, and an appropriately precautionary approach to pandemic response.’ TUC/STUC submission to UK Covid 19 Inquiry (10 January 2024) By stewartb – a long read Already a lot of evidence concerning Scotland has been accumulated by the UK … Continue reading The Covid Inquiry evidence unreported by BBC Scotland – can ‘bias by omission’ get any worse? 

“Protective effect of devolved policies” – Child poverty rates in Scotland (24%) remain much lower than those in England (31%) and Wales (28%)“The Protective effect of devolved policies” 

Joseph Rowntree Foundation on the Scottish Government By stewartb The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) published (on 25 January) a report entitled ‘Constraints and trade-offs for the next government’. It paints a bleak picture of the present state of the UK, its public finances and services. Over the short to medium term, it offers no cheer for the future. The IFS notes: ’further tax rises and further cuts for most public services are built into current plans. But on official forecasts, this is only just enough to stabilise government debt as a fraction of national income.’  (my emphasis) And it … Continue reading “Protective effect of devolved policies” – Child poverty rates in Scotland (24%) remain much lower than those in England (31%) and Wales (28%)“The Protective effect of devolved policies”