Tag: elections

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Only 0.01% of voters actually think gender reform is the key issue but the media will say it is for the SNP in 2026 – How the media try to influence election outcomes by deciding WHAT you think is important

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Support Talking-up Scotland’s work to counter the lies and get you the facts, daily, at: https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/checkout/help-talking-up-scotland-tell-truth-about-scotland/payment/nBQxjVzq/details Professor John Robertson OBA The Trans issue has been central to media coverage in Scotland for years now and that coverage has uniformly sought to present it as controversial and to locate entirely within the affairs of the SNP, disregarding cross-party support, so as to protect, especially, Anas Sarwar. You see above, that the Times has decided that ‘trans’ is to be the ‘key issue for the SNP‘ at election, May 2026. What is that claim based on? In December 2022, in a poll of 1 … Continue reading Only 0.01% of voters actually think gender reform is the key issue but the media will say it is for the SNP in 2026 – How the media try to influence election outcomes by deciding WHAT you think is important

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‘How much difference does it make to the results of political opinion polling in Scotland if the polling company does or does not apply a 2014 weighting to its survey findings?’

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stewartb The ease of asking questions of these AI tools is ‘interesting’! My question: ‘How much difference does it make to the results of political opinion polling in Scotland if the polling company does or does not apply a 2014 weighting to its survey findings?’ ChatGPT said:‘Applying or not applying a 2014 independence referendum weighting to political opinion polls in Scotland can significantly affect the reported results, especially when measuring support for Scottish independence.’ Here’s a breakdown of what this weighting does and why it matWhat is the 2014 weighting?This weighting adjusts the results of a poll to reflect how respondents say they … Continue reading ‘How much difference does it make to the results of political opinion polling in Scotland if the polling company does or does not apply a 2014 weighting to its survey findings?’

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‘When a polling company reports a survey of political opinion in Scotland weighted to 2014 what does it mean?’ Intelligence response

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stewartb: I asked the question of Chat GPT (for free) as a place to start – other AI tools are available. From Chat GPT – (see https://chatgpt.com ) My question: ‘When a polling company reports a survey of political opinion in Scotland weighted to 2014 what does it mean?‘ ChatGPT said in response: ‘When a polling company reports a survey of political opinion in Scotland “weighted to 2014,” it usually refers to weighting the data based on how people voted in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. I’n Detail: In Scotland, “2014” almost always refers to the independence referendum, held on 18 September … Continue reading ‘When a polling company reports a survey of political opinion in Scotland weighted to 2014 what does it mean?’ Intelligence response

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SNP 1 and 2? A bold and bald campaign

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Professor John Robertson OBA How and why did we manage to get an overall majority in 2011? How might we shape future campaigns to recreate this result? Some ideas for debate: The campaign Research by the London School of Economics (LSE), in 2011, concluded that this was ‘an extraordinary result in an ‘ordinary’ election.’ By this, they mean that the data from 4 000 eligible voters in the Scottish Election Study did not reflect a surge in support for independence but, rather a desire to reward the SNP for effective government from 2007 to 2011. This is echoed today in … Continue reading SNP 1 and 2? A bold and bald campaign

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Did the Sunday Times hide around 60% support for independence by dramatically reducing the number of 2014 Yes voters in their poll sample from 387 down to only 278

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The Norstat poll for the Sunday Times on 6 December 2024, on a future second referendum on Scottish independence had: Yes 54% No 46% A healthy 8% lead, well up on a tie five days earlier and a 3% lead for No on 22 August. However, as in most polls on this question, the pollsters had adjusted, ‘weighted’, their sample to reflect several factors such as gender, age, socio-economic class, country of birth and voting patterns in the 2024 general election, the 2021 Scottish election, the 2016 EU referendum and the 2014 independence referendum. This weighting is designed entirely legitimately, … Continue reading Did the Sunday Times hide around 60% support for independence by dramatically reducing the number of 2014 Yes voters in their poll sample from 387 down to only 278

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The SNP can win again if they learn from the US Democrat’s defeat – don’t respond to opposition ‘facts’, frame the argument as strength and do not move to the right as that only convinces voters that the right has better ideas

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I’m grateful to stewartb for alerting me to this: How could so many people vote for someone who does not have their best interests at heart? Because people don’t necessarily vote their self-interest. Instead, they vote their values. Moving forward, Democrats must stop making these superficial, last-minute lurches toward Republican ideas. They must frame the case not as left or right, but for the people and the public good. Moving to the right only convinces voters that the right has better ideas. It’s a desperate short-term strategy with harmful long-term consequences. These two quotes are from Some lessons of the … Continue reading The SNP can win again if they learn from the US Democrat’s defeat – don’t respond to opposition ‘facts’, frame the argument as strength and do not move to the right as that only convinces voters that the right has better ideas

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Thanks to Paul Hutcheon I now know roughly how much is being made to all panellists as pundits in elections by TV channels

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By Anonymous Here’s another joke, also not a HA HA one. Nicola Sturgeon apparently was paid £25k by ITV for punditry on GE night. Paul Hutcheon of the Daily Record told us that in a tweet where he included a picture of her , Ms Sturgeon, on a panel with ex Tory Chancellor George Osborne and also ex Labour MP Ed Balls , also now a ITV GMB part time presenter and he is also the husband of the current Labour Home Secretary Yvette Cooper. Paul did however tell us that she , Ms Sturgeon, declared the cash which was why Paul then chose to reveal … Continue reading Thanks to Paul Hutcheon I now know roughly how much is being made to all panellists as pundits in elections by TV channels

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Voters in Wales are less than convinced about Labour’s track record

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By stewartb The BBC News website’s Wales section today has this headline: ‘Low Welsh voter turnout appalling, says Kinnock’. It reports that: ‘In Wales, only 56% of voters filled out their ballot papers, compared to 60% across the UK, and 67% in Wales last time out in 2019.’ (In Scotland the overall turnout was 59%, down 8.4% from 2019.) And: ‘Despite winning the majority of seats, Labour’s vote share in Wales actually dropped, down from 40% to 37%.’ ‘… every Welsh constituency saw a decline compared to the previous election.’ So the impact on the 2024 GE of Labour having a long record in government in Cardiff whether on … Continue reading Voters in Wales are less than convinced about Labour’s track record

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Conservative candidates too feart to attend public hustings

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Conservative candidate, Martin Dowey (right), failed to turn up last night at a public hustings in Ayr, for the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency. We must assume he feared the kind of hostility his party is getting everywhere outside of the South of England. What could he have said to the several WASPI women in the crowd or in response to questions about their mismanagement of the economy, their corruption, their betting scandal and umpteen other dark traces of their 14 years in power? Strangely, their former MP for the constituency, Bill Grant, whose views on the Union seem clear, … Continue reading Conservative candidates too feart to attend public hustings

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Major fixes are required for a failing UK state but the two main parties are in denial for partisan electoral reasons

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From stewartb There have been some escoriating assessments of the Tory and Labour manifestos for the upcoming General Election. They include the one below from the establishment-revered Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). When reading the extracts, written from a London/England-centric UK perspective, reflect on just how ‘distant’ – how lacking in effective agency — Scotland’s electorate and government are in all of this! The IFS is essentially arguing that major fixes are required for a failing UK state but that the two main parties are in denial for partisan electoral reasons. Within this Union, Scotland’s ability to influence the nature … Continue reading Major fixes are required for a failing UK state but the two main parties are in denial for partisan electoral reasons