It’s only a sub-poll based on 212 Scots over 18 years-of-age for the next UK election, so limited on its own, but the scale of the SNP lead and the first 40+ figure is notable. Also notable, unlike YouGov Holyrood polls, their Westmnister polls are not weighted (skewed) to mirror the 12 year-old Referendum 55/45 ratio.

To illustrate the changing picture in Scotland, in early January and for most of February 2026, YouGov had the SNP at 35% but in March an upward trend has become apparent, heading toward 40% and perhaps now beyond that.

In YouGov’s last full Holyrood poll, on 18 February 2026, with the skewed weighting of the sample, they still had the SNP at only 34%, just 16 points ahead of Reform UK.

In the most recent full Holyrood poll by Lord Ashcroft, on 6 March, the SNP hit 39%, 25 points ahead of Reform UK.

It’s hard not to see an encouraging trend here but keep your foot to the pedal!