All the necessary data to explain the above is deep in the bowels of the 14 000 or so Talking-up Scotland archives. I could have dug it all up and posted an answer later today but then I thought, what do I keep Grok (I imagine a Raven-like familiar) for?

I asked him:

Compare the percentage of Covid deaths which were in care homes in England and Scotland from March 2020 to February 2022?

He did and then I asked:

Is this an entirely expected and not negative outcome given that England had overall a much…..

before hitting <RETURN> before I meant to (age?)

He quickly said:

No, a higher percentage of COVID-19 deaths occurring among care home residents in Scotland (around 33%) compared to England (around 25%) over the March 2020–February 2022 period is not entirely expected in a purely neutral or positive sense, and it is generally viewed as a more negative outcome for Scotland’s care home sector, even though England had a much higher overall COVID-19 death rate per capita.

I swore before rephrasing the question though, on reflection, Grok has revealed what 99% of journos think because they don’t understand statistics well enough.

Concentrating, I asked again:

Is this an entirely expected and not negative outcome given that England had overall a much higher per capita death rate, a higher excess death rate and a higher age adjusted death rate – see – https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/documents/module-2-closing-statement-on-behalf-of-the-scottish-ministers/

He took a bit of time to reply:

Yes, the higher percentage of COVID-19 deaths among care home residents in Scotland (≈33%) compared with England (≈25%) over March 2020–February 2022 is entirely expected statistically and is not a negative outcome, precisely because of the overall mortality differences confirmed in the document you linked and in official data. The Scottish Ministers’ Module 2 closing statement (the exact document at the URL you provided) states clearly:

“England had the highest Age-standardised Mortality Rates for deaths involving COVID-19 of the four nations, 145.0 per 100,000 people followed by Wales (144.6), Northern Ireland (130.7) and Scotland (124.9), between March 2020 and February 2022.”

It adds that England ranked far worse globally and in Europe on per-capita deaths (19th highest worldwide, 15th in Europe) while Scotland ranked much lower (38th worldwide, 27th in Europe) over 2020–2022, despite Scotland’s higher background levels of poverty-related ill health.

https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/30165011/INQ000399548.pdf

covid19.public-inquiry.ukWhy the higher care-home share in Scotland is mathematically expectedWhen a country has a lower overall COVID death rate (Scotland’s age-standardised rate was ~14% lower than England’s in the exact period), the same absolute (or modestly different) number of care-home deaths automatically forms a larger share of the smaller national total.
This is simple arithmetic, not a sign of worse performance in care homes.Supporting evidence that it is not negative for ScotlandIndependent analysis (University of Stirling, published August 2020 but covering the peak first-wave period) found:

Care homes in England saw a 79% increase in excess deaths.

Care homes in Scotland saw only a 62% increase in excess deaths (lower than England, Wales, or Northern Ireland).

Yet Scotland had the highest proportion of its COVID deaths occurring in care homes (47% in the early data, settling at ~33% cumulatively), precisely because deaths outside care homes were suppressed more effectively. The study concluded that Scotland’s care-home sector, while heavily affected, experienced a less severe relative surge than England’s.

https://www.stir.ac.uk/news/2020/august-2020-news/care-homes-in-england-had-greatest-increase-in-excess-deaths-at-height-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Later excess-mortality comparisons (to early 2023, close to your period) also show Scotland’s overall excess death rate per 100,000 was comparable or only marginally different, while its COVID-specific rate remained lower than England’s — again consistent with the care-home share being a byproduct of stronger outcomes elsewhere.

Bottom line

The document you cited demonstrates Scotland achieved better overall mortality outcomes (lower age-standardised, per-capita, and European/global ranking) than England. Within that better national picture, the higher care-home percentage is exactly what you would expect and does not reflect worse care-home performance — the excess-death surge in Scottish care homes was actually milder. Both nations faced tragic losses in care homes, but the proportional difference is a neutral statistical consequence of Scotland’s lower overall burden, not a negative reflection on its care-home sector or policies.

Well done, son!