There’s a constant narrative across all of of the media in Scotland that won’t go away and that is being ramped up in the hope that it might save Anas Sarwar in May.

I’m not for a minute saying that violence in schools is not a serious problem which has to be dealt with and I’m agreeing fully that teaching can be a very challenging job but the idea that it is increasing dramatically trigger cognitive dissonance.

Why? It’s in my title question. We don’t have any hard evidence of increasing violence in schools, only mostly anecdotal accounts. Again, I’m not doubting that these incidents happen.

Here’s why, I’m puzzled.

There is a marked overall decline in youth violence in Scotland

What is the long-term youth violence trend in Scotland?

Youth violence in Scotland typically refers to violent incidents (e.g., assaults, robberies, or homicides) involving individuals under 18 as victims, perpetrators, or both. Data comes from sources like the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS, a victimization survey), Recorded Crime in Scotland (police data), and cohort studies such as the Edinburgh Study of Youth Transitions and Crime (ESYTC) and Growing Up in Scotland (GUS). Long-term trends (roughly 2000–2025) show a marked overall decline, driven by public health interventions like the Scottish Violence Reduction Unit (SVRU, established 2005).

Key Long-Term Trends

• Victimization Rates (SCJS Data): The proportion of 16–24-year-olds experiencing violence fell by 75% from 12.0% in 2008/09 to 3.0% in 2021/22.
• Overall violent victimization among adults (including youth) dropped from 4.1% in 2008/09 to 1.7% in 2021/22, with the estimated volume of violent crimes decreasing by 58% over the same period.
• By 2023/24, the rate stabilized at 2.6% for assaults (unchanged from pre-COVID 2019/20 levels). Trends for under-18s are similar but less granular, showing stable or decreasing rates of sharp-object injuries from 2012–2017.
• Offending and Perpetration Rates: Cohort studies reveal dramatic reductions in youth offending behavior. Comparing ESYTC (1998/99 cohort, aged 12) and GUS (2010s cohort, aged 12–14), the prevalence of violent or antisocial acts dropped sharply—e.g., from ~70% of 12-year-olds engaging in at least one offense in the late 1990s to far lower rates today (specific reductions: boys ~50–60%, girls >80%). Police-recorded serious assaults/attempted murders by under-18s remained stable at ~550 annually from 2008/09 to 2017/18. Broader violent crime convictions fell most among young men, explaining much of Scotland’s overall crime drop since the early 2000s.

Sources at: https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1998660120302026957