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Analyst James Kelly in the National Today, has: Reform UK could be main threat to SNP in Ayr.

Well maybe, maybe not. I’d be a fool to say it could never happen but the evidence so far says Reform UK are less popular in the South-west of Scotland than they may be in other parts and, so unlikely to trouble the SNP there.

The most recent poll from Ipsos suggests, at a national level, SNP solid, Reform UK weakening and Labour climbing out of their trough, with:

• SNP: 36% (+1 point compared with Ipsos’ previous poll taken 27th November – 3rd December)
• Labour: 20% (+4)
• Reform UK: 16% (-2 points)
• Liberal Democrats: 10% (+1)
• Conservatives: 9% (-2)
• Scottish Green Party: 7% (-2)
• Other: 2% (no change)

The same poll also suggests SNP supporters are far less likely to change their mind than Labour and Conservative voters. Might enough of them, as has been suggested elsewhere be prepared to vote SNP tactically, to keep Reform UK out?

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/snp-maintain-polling-lead-scotland-four-ten-say-they-may-change-their-minds

More localised data?

Ayr – Culturally Southern or a bit Western?

Keeping the above image in mind, and looking at the regional figures in this most recent Ipsos poll, in South Scotland, it does look close at SNP 29%, Reform UK 28% but remember we’re talking about a sub-sample of only 133 folk and Reform UK only attracted 32 of them.

In West Scotland, perhaps more like urban Ayr than the small towns and rural villages in South Scotland, Reform UK came 4th(!) with only 11%, after SNP 33%, Labour 31%, Lib Dems 12%.

On their own, sub-polls have little meaning, we need several to even begin thinking they might, and regrettably few Holyrood polls have them.

Ipsos for 12-18 June 2025, when Reform UK were stronger than they are now in UK polls, also had a regional breakdown.

Reform UK was weak in both areas (14%, 13% compared to 16% nationally) 4^th in South and 3^rd in West.

The SNP ahead was with 29% in South, 32% in West and 32% nationally.

Labour were in 2^nd place in both with 24% and 27% and 21% nationally.

Cons were close in 3^rd but only in the South at 22% and 10% nationally.

Analysis of poll data from:

Click to access SPM_June2025_tables_V1_PUBLIC_1.pdf

There’s little sign here, I’d say, of a Reform UK surge to take Ayr, in any of that, and finally,

On the 16th October 2025, in the North Ayr ward [predominantly working-class] local authority by-election, with Reform UK dominant in Westminster polls and Farage all over the media, Reform UK can only come 4th, well behind SNP and Labour.

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