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I’m grateful to @amaccj for reminding me of this and for the link to the source.

When the final assessment is made, we need to set the scene with these facts:

1. The World Health Organisation had pressed the panic button warning national governments to act on the 30th of January 2020.¹
2. Throughout February and March PM Johnson missed 5 Cobra meetings which discussed the need for a response.² Pandemic response was still a reserved matter to the UK Government.
3. In the first week of March, FM Sturgeon called for an immediate lockdown but PM Johnson refused in the interests of business.³
4. PM Johnson reluctantly called the first UK lockdown on 23 March 2020.⁴
5. The pandemic response strategy was devolved to Scotland on 25 March 2020. ⁵

Two years later, in February 2022, as the pandemic receded, the simple consequences in terms of mortality in different parts of the UK can be see in this table from the September 2023, UK Covid 19 Inquiry report⁶:

Other than the isolated South-west of England, Scotland had the lowest mortality rate of the 4 nations, even lower than Northern Ireland sheltered by its sea gap.

15% more died in Wales, suggesting a further 2 000 Scots might have died had their pandemic experience been managed by the Welsh Labour Government.

18% more died in England, suggesting a further 2 400 Scots might have died had their pandemic experience been managed by the UK Conservative Government.

How do we explain this? Faster and longer shutdowns; greater trust in FM Sturgeon’s guidance and consequent greater compliance with face masks and higher vaccination levels; quicker care home vaccinations after Health Secretary Freeman accelerated this, contrary to the UK strategy; more frequent care home inspections in the period prior to the pandemic?

Sources:

1. https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline—covid-19
2. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/michael-gove-fails-to-deny-pm-missed-five-coronavirus-cobra-meetings
3. https://x.com/pjwoodside/status/1271449299721883649
4. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-impact-of-covid-19-lockdowns-on-crime-demand-and-charge-volumes/the-impact-of-covid-19-lockdowns-on-crime-demand-and-charge-volumes-in-england-and-wales#:~:text=23%2F03%2F2020,buying%20food%20or%20medical%20reasons).
5. https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/coronavirus-act-2020
6. https://t.co/vHHPbEUoY3

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