Professor John Robertson OBA

YouGov is no friend of the SNP nor of Scottish Independence. They have an unerring ability to pluck out a NO lead in a stream of YES leads found by other pollsters and lower SNP figures than others. See below:

They do this over and over by adjusting the sample so that, even after 11 or 12 years, it has a 55 to 45 ratio of No and Yes voters in 2014, in full Scotland only polls.

However, when it does a full UK Westminster poll it cannot really do this and so the Scottish sub-poll results, though too small on their own, are not skewed by the 2014 result.

Too small on their own, but if 10 of them tell the same story?

In the last 10 Westminster polls by YouGov, from 2nd November 2025 to January 5th 2026, the SNP share has climbed steadily – 35%, 33%, 32%, 34%, 39%, 39%, 40%, 37%, 40%, 40% – and seems to be settling around 40%. That would lead to a devastating outcome, including the end of Jackie Baillie, a miserable defeat for Labour and a Reform UK damp squib.