Professor John Robertson OBA

You’ll have seen headlines like – ‘SNP has slammed Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar for his silence on Westminster’s “nuclear tax”, which could see Scottish households paying out a total of £300 million over the next decade to fund nuclear projects in England.’

Labour MPs and MSPs are already programmed to deny it and to demonise any who suggest it is true.

It is true.

The UK Government explicitly plans to fund new nuclear power station building, such as Sizewell C in Suffolk, via the RAB levy.¹

What is the RAB levy?

It’s a UK-wide charge added to electricity bills to fund new power station building and in particular Sizewell C in the South-east of England.¹

Is the SNP’s £300 million figure over the next decade a reasonable estimate?

The £300 million figure cited by the SNP for the total cost to Scottish households over the next decade originates from their public statements and is attributed to an independent analysis by the House of Commons Library. This estimate aligns with straightforward calculations using publicly available data on the number of Scottish households, average annual electricity consumption per household, and the initial RAB levy rates set for late 2025 onward.

Working below:

Sources:

1. https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/revenue-stream-for-the-nuclear-regulated-asset-base-rab-model

Breakdown of the Estimate

The calculation assumes the levy remains relatively stable in the £3.50–£4.50 per MWh range during early implementation (with potential adjustments over time). Here’s how it derives:

• Number of households in Scotland: Approximately 2.55 million as of 2024 (projected to remain similar in 2025, with gradual growth). nrscotland.gov.uk +1
• Average annual electricity consumption per household: Around 3,429 kWh in Scotland. sunsave.energy
• Initial RAB levy rate: £3.455 per MWh (equivalent to £0.003455 per kWh), starting November 2025, plus a negligible operational cost component (~£0.0028 per MWh). energy.drax.com +1

Per-household annual cost: 3,429 kWh × £0.003455/kWh ≈ £11.85.
Total annual cost for Scotland: £11.85 × 2.55 million households ≈ £30.2 million.

Over 10 years: £30.2 million × 10 ≈ £302 million (rounded to £300 million in SNP statements, accounting for minor variations in rates or consumption). This is a high-level projection and could fluctuate based on actual levy adjustments, energy usage trends, or exemptions (e.g., for energy-intensive industries). The SNP has referenced this in critiques of the policy, labeling it a “nuclear tax” that burdens Scotland without local nuclear benefits. thenational.scot +2

The House of Commons Library analysis mentioned in reports appears to be a non-public or custom briefing, but the underlying data is consistent with official sources from National Records of Scotland, Ofgem, and the Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC).