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Professor John Robertson OBA

What are the predictions for child poverty rates in the future in the 4 nations?

Based on an AI search of 56 documents:

Predictions for future child poverty rates in the four UK nations vary by source and depend on policy changes, economic growth, and devolved measures.The most recent official UK government projections (November 2025, from the Department for Work and Pensions) estimate 4.3 million children in relative low income after housing costs by FYE 2030 (the end of the current parliament), a reduction of about 400,000 from FYE 2025 under assumptions including the removal of the two-child limit in Universal Credit. However, these are UK-wide and do not break down by nation. The government’s Child Poverty Strategy (December 2025) claims its measures will lift 550,000 children out of relative poverty by FYE 2030 compared to a baseline, though this is also UK-wide and subject to uncertainty.The most detailed nation-specific projections come from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) analysis (early 2025), based on Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) economic forecasts at the time. These suggest child poverty (relative, after housing costs) will diverge significantly:

• Scotland: Projected to fall to around 21.8% by 2029, due to policies like the Scottish Child Payment and plans to mitigate the two-child limit. This would widen the gap with other nations.
• England: Projected to rise to 31.5% by 2029.
• Wales: Projected to rise to 34.4% by 2029.
• Northern Ireland: Projected to rise to 26.2% by 2029.

England’s 9.7 difference in crude terms is equivalent of 45% greater and Wales’ 12.6 is 58% higher.

JRF noted that economic growth alone won’t reduce poverty without stronger social security measures, and Scotland’s devolved benefits give it an advantage.The Scottish Government’s own modeling (2024-25 progress report) estimates its policies will reduce relative child poverty by about 7 percentage points in 2025-26 (keeping ~70,000 children out of poverty), with further impacts projected through 2029-30. Scotland has legal targets to reduce relative child poverty to below 10% by 2030/31, but current progress shows it’s off track without additional action.No equivalent recent nation-specific forecasts exist for England, Wales, or Northern Ireland beyond the JRF estimates. The UK government’s strategy applies across all nations, but devolved powers (e.g., Scotland’s benefits, Wales’ and Northern Ireland’s approaches) mean outcomes could differ. Overall, without major new interventions, child poverty is expected to remain high or rise in most nations, with Scotland likely to continue having the lowest rates. These projections carry uncertainty due to economic factors like inflation, wages, and potential policy shifts.

Sources:

Here are the key sources for the information provided on current child poverty rates and future projections across the four UK nations (England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland), based on the most recent available data as of December 2025.

Current Rates (2023/24, from Households Below Average Income Statistics)

• Department for Work and Pensions (DWP): Official HBAI data for FYE 2023/24 (year ending April 2024), including breakdowns by nation. Relative child poverty after housing costs: Scotland ~23% (three-year average), Northern Ireland ~24%, England ~31%, Wales ~31%.
  Source: DWP Households Below Average Income 2023/24 (published March 2025).
• Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG): Analysis of DWP data, confirming the nation-level rates and highlighting Scotland’s lower rate.
  Source: CPAG Poverty Facts and Figures (updated 2025).
• End Child Poverty Coalition: Local and national breakdowns calibrated to HBAI, showing high rates in England/Wales and lower in Scotland/Northern Ireland.
  Source: End Child Poverty Coalition Child Poverty Statistics 2025.

Future Projections

• Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF): UK Poverty 2025 Report and analysis (January/February 2025), based on Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts. Projects relative child poverty after housing costs by 2029: Scotland ~21.8% (falling due to devolved policies like Scottish Child Payment), England ~31.5%, Wales ~34.4%, Northern Ireland ~26.2%. Emphasizes Scotland’s divergence.
  Sources: JRF “Growth alone won’t cut child poverty” (2025) and UK Poverty 2025.
• Scottish Government: Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan progress report 2024-25 (June 2025), modeling ~7 percentage point reduction in relative child poverty by 2025-26 from devolved policies (keeping ~70,000 children out), with ongoing impacts to 2030. Notes off-track for 2030 targets without more action.
  Source: Scottish Government Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan Progress Report 2024-25.
• UK Government: Low-income poverty projections for children FYE 2025 to FYE 2030 (November 2025) and Child Poverty Strategy impact assessment (December 2025). UK-wide estimates: ~4.3 million children in relative poverty by FYE 2030 (reduction of ~400,000 from baseline, or ~550,000 from strategy measures like removing the two-child limit). No nation-specific breakdowns.
  Sources: DWP Low Income Poverty Projections (November 2025) and Child Poverty Strategy Impact (December 2025).

These projections are subject to uncertainty from economic factors (e.g., inflation, wages) and policy changes. JRF provides the most detailed nation-specific outlook, while UK government figures are aggregate. For full reports, refer to the linked sources above.

My source: https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=2002380695335801297