Professor John Robertson OBA

From Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q3 2025 published yesterday:

When comparing the year ending September 2025 with the previous year, the value of Scotland’s international goods exports increased by 1% to £24.1 billion, while Scotland’s goods imports increased by 3% to £24.3 billion. Overall, Scotland’s total international trade (imports + exports) in goods increased by 2%.

Over the longer term, Scotland’s international goods exports have decreased by 12% in the year ending September 2025 compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2018. Over the same period Scotland’s exports to the EU have decreased by 20%.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/inflation-adjusted-hmrc-regional-trade-statistics-for-scotland-q3-2025/pages/key-findings/#page-top

In 2016, for the last year, pre-Brexit:

Including oil and gas — Scotland recorded a trade surplus of approximately £2 billion (about 1.2% of GDP). This comes from experimental statistics in the Scottish Government’s “Scotland: a Trading Nation” report (2019), drawing on the Whole of Scotland Economic Accounts Project and Quarterly National Accounts Scotland.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotland-a-trading-nation/

It’s clear. Brexit has destroyed Scotland’s long history of having a trade surplus of the scale that would have necessitated no national debt of the kind the rUK has long needed.

Not included in these figures are the massive trade surplus we would have with rUK based on the £10 – £14bn energy trade with them, or of our massive food and drink trade.

Further, the swelling trade with China, via Prestwick Airport, can only further boost Scotland’s surplus.