Pollster YouGov is no friend of Scottish Independence or of the SNP and, in full Scotland-only polls, uses sampling adjustments to consistently get No majorities and low SNP support, amidst other pollsters getting a run of Yes majorities and SNP strength.
You can see this anomalous pattern in the last 9 months as other pollsters find quite large Yes leads in polls of 1 000 and more, their unerring ability, with to a lesser extent Survation, to pull out very different results
So, when we come to the Scottish sub-polls, though the sample is small, it is not skewed by that adjustment of the sample, and when we have a series of these sub-polls they start to become meaningful indicators of a trend.
It seems pretty clear that the SNP support is consolidating and steadily pushing up toward 40% which would serve them very well in May 2026.
There’s a potentially unnerving Reform UK spike, at the end there, but we’ll need to see a few more polls saying the same thing before we worry too much.
There are, of course, within Scotland, regional differences.
While Scotland-wide polls have Reform UK in second place pushing Labour down into third place and a major loss of list MPSs, this may conceal regional variations and exaggerate their threat in some parts.
Only Paris-based, Ipsos, publish regional breakdowns with consistent scientific sampling that can be reasonably compared over time, though limited slightly by a Westminster context in one (18 June 2025) and Holyrood in the the other (10 December 2025).
The results are above and suggest different tactics for SNP campaigns in the West and South of Scotland.
Key points:
- Reform UK, in 3rd place in both regions, is clearly less of a threat than Labour so we need to be keeping at them with all of the failures and betrayals they have made.
- The undecided are in double figures so important and there are reasons to be optimistic about winning enough of them to be safe
- The December Ipsos poll has the SNP strong on a number of issues which we can push on in campaigning – Standing up for Scotland’s interests 41% way ahead of Labour in second placed with only 10; Growing the economy, tackling cost of living – 24-26% – more than double Labour in second place.
- The YouGov poll 5 November 2025 is the only other with a regional breakdown but does not ask how you would vote but rather who you would never or definitely consider voting for on a 0 to 1 score. 37% and 38% in South and West respectively would consider voting for (6-10) the SNP, at least 10 points clear of all but Reform where it’s a massive 20 points clear.
- So, Reform UK are not a threat here. Labour and Cons remain a moderate threat which requires heavy publicised reminders of how we do and have protected with universal benefits, housing, flood defences, progressive taxation, better NHS and schools, lower crime etc and how both have betrayed their supporter’s interests. Capturing Greens requires a push in publicising our achievements in renewables, tree planting, biodiversity etc.
Comments?
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Thanks loads John, excellent to see this. Yep we definitely need to keep getting the message out about the many positive SNP policies, and how much they do to mitigate Westminster austerity and economic vandalism. People need reminding of what the English unionist parties did in neglecting Scotland, while taking the huge resources for themselves over decades and more, while keeping Scotland begging for crumbs.
I was speaking to someone yesterday, who was adamant anti independence and was a staunch Labour voter, who I’d say now is beginning to change his mind, even discussing voting system for Holyrood and how England are imposing a new ballot counting system for next years election, the person is from south of England. So…I think given the terrible situation with Labour and for those who wholly reject far right Farage et al…things may well not be quite as clear cut as the Britnats would like it to be, can’t con people so much now, I hope!
I just wish I could do more, lots to deal with and in the new year too..otherwise I’d be out helping SNP campaign etc. Fingers crossed for Scotland.
Btw just listening to Caledon Radio, so nice to have that available 🙂
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BBC Scotland’s David Wallace Lockhart desperately trawling for Reform UK voters in Whitburn, West Lothian, yesterday. RUK just won their first ever election in Scotland, a council by-election. The voters are “fed up”.
Somebody in Whitburn is angry about small boats bringing illegal immigrants.
The ‘fed up’ Scottish town that voted for Reform UK – BBC News
Soon the Peter Murrell trial will dominate the headlines. I wonder if postponing it for so long means it has lost traction as an anti-SNP media frenzy. More “yawn” than “That’s it! I’m tearing up my SNP membership card”.
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We can be certain that if Scotland had a fair, impartial media (print and broadcast), that Scotland would be independent by now.
After 2014 there were relentless attacks on the very concept of independence, vilification of the people promoting it and with a “veto” from London and their northern puppets, confronting those who wished to consult Scots.
It became obvious that the Scotland Act had nullified the Treaty Of Union safeguards, and reduced Scotland to an utterly powerless entity.
Far from a Union of Equals, Colonialism Rules.
gavinochiltree
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Reform maybe riding high in the polls just now but we shall see once their supporters discover their intention to privatise the NHS which will very likely exclude many from affordable health care.
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