From NHS England yesterday:
Flu hospitalisations have surged by more than half in just one week, plunging the NHS into a “worst case scenario” situation for December, new figures reveal today. An average of 2,660 patients per day were in a hospital bed with flu last week – the highest ever for this time of year and up 55% up on last week.1
From Public Health Scotland, also yesterday:
Influenza activity in Scotland increased at a more moderate pace in week 49, although the high activity threshold has now been reached, earlier than previous seasons. Case numbers increased by 24% to 2331 from 1875 and there were 986 hospital admissions in week 49, up by 15% from 860; both measures have increased at slower rates than the previous week and there is, as yet, no evidence of more severe disease as measured by ICU/HDU admissions. Influenza A(H3N2) continues to dominate.2
Two observations.
First the percentage increase in flu-related admissions to NHS England hospitals continues to surge and is now approaching 4 times the rate of increase in Scotland (55% to 15%).
Second the actual number being admitted to Scotland’s hospitals is per head around 4 times higher than in England. 986 in Scotland would be like 9 860 in England yet NHS England is in a ‘worst case scenario’ with only 2 660!
Why is Scotland not reporting being in a ‘worst case scenario’ with still 4 times the admissions, pro rate?
Scottish Government significantly widened access to free flu vaccine to give more than twice as many, per capita, protection from worrying new mutation
First, availability in England – you can get the free NHS flu vaccine if you:
- are aged 65 or over (including those who will be 65 by 31 March 2026)
- have certain long-term health conditions
- are pregnant
- live in a care home
- are the main carer for an older or disabled person, or receive a carer’s allowance
- live with someone who has a weakened immune system
Source: https://www.nhs.uk/vaccinations/flu-vaccine/
In Scotland, significantly wider free availability is in place
This includes:
- those aged 65 and over (on or before 31 March 2025)
- those aged 18 to 64 with an eligible health condition (as defined in the chapter 19 of the Green Book)
- those who are pregnant
- those living in a long-stay residential care home or other long-stay care facility
- those living with someone who has a weakened immune system
- an unpaid or young carer
- a frontline health or social care worker
- a non-frontline NHS worker
- a poultry worker or bird handler
- an asylum seeker living in a Home Office hotel or B&B accommodation
- those experiencing homelessness
- those experiencing substance misuse
- those living in a Scottish prison
Second, uptake-levels in key groups are already significantly lower in key >65 group in England.
For 2024-2025, early trends show Scotland with stronger uptake among over-65s (71.6% vs. England’s ~60-65% estimated based on historical patterns) – multiple sources at: https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1987603360061788291
Perhaps most indicative of the risk is the number of doses given and the contrast is shocking.
NHS Scotland has given 927 000 doses so far (down 20% on last year’s total): https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-6-november-2025/
All things being equal, we might expect the figure in England to be around 9.27 million but it was only 4.3million: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2025-to-2026-season/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-report-6-november-2025-week-45
So, less than half the Scottish uptake per capita, in England, reflecting the wider free availability, above.
Has any journalist in Scotland noticed this?
NHS Scotland nearly 30% more beds, per head, than NHS England, to cope better with future pandemics
From Acute hospital activity and NHS beds information (annual) Year ending 31 March 2025 published today:
In 2024/25, the average number of available staffed beds per day for acute specialties was 13,717 – a 0.3% decrease on the previous year (2023/24) and a 3.7% increase compared to five years ago (2019/20).
From NHS England’s Bed Availability and Occupancy Data (KH03 collection) for Quarter 4 2024/25 (January to March 2025), published on the NHS England statistics website:
106,068 is the total number of available general and acute beds (overnight) in NHS England for Quarter 4 of 2024/25 (January to March 2025), the most recent full quarter as of September 30, 2025.
All things being equal, per head, pro rata, NHS England might be expected to have around 10 times as many beds as NHS Scotland, 137 000, but had only 106 000, 31 000 fewer.
This NHS Scotland has, per head, 29.2% more beds than NHS England.
Might that have played a part in Scotland having a far lower Covid 19 pandemic death rate?
When adjusted for population (deaths per 100,000 people), the rates were closer: England (260 per 100,000), Wales (260), Scotland (190), and Northern Ireland (170). England and Wales had the highest rates overall. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom
Scotland has 71% more nurses
In England there were nearly seven nurses per 1,000 people, while there were nearly 12 per 1,000 in Scotland. https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/uk-fewer-nurses-per-head-33961132
OMG if the Daily Record doesn’t attempt to hide that, it must be true!
So, 5 more than 7 per 1 000 people, is 71.4%
Sources:
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Not ’emissions’, admissions surely! Rather a different meaning!
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