Professor John Robertson OBA

Today’s reporting of apparent surges in youth violence across parts of England bears no resemblance to Scotland other than in the bonfire riots in 2023 and before.

What is the long-term youth violence trend in Scotland?

Overview of Youth Violence in ScotlandYouth violence in Scotland typically refers to violent incidents (e.g., assaults, robberies, or homicides) involving individuals under 18 as victims, perpetrators, or both. Data comes from sources like the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS, a victimization survey), Recorded Crime in Scotland (police data), and cohort studies such as the Edinburgh Study of Youth Transitions and Crime (ESYTC) and Growing Up in Scotland (GUS). Long-term trends (roughly 2000–2025) show a marked overall decline, driven by public health interventions like the Scottish Violence Reduction Unit (SVRU, established 2005). However, recent years (post-2020) indicate a partial reversal, with rises in certain metrics, possibly linked to COVID-19 disruptions, social media influences, and cuts to youth services.Key Long-Term Trends

• Victimization Rates (SCJS Data): The proportion of 16–24-year-olds experiencing violence fell by 75% from 12.0% in 2008/09 to 3.0% in 2021/22. Overall violent victimization among adults (including youth) dropped from 4.1% in 2008/09 to 1.7% in 2021/22, with the estimated volume of violent crimes decreasing by 58% over the same period. By 2023/24, the rate stabilized at 2.6% for assaults (unchanged from pre-COVID 2019/20 levels). Trends for under-18s are similar but less granular, showing stable or decreasing rates of sharp-object injuries from 2012–2017.
• Offending and Perpetration Rates: Cohort studies reveal dramatic reductions in youth offending behavior. Comparing ESYTC (1998/99 cohort, aged 12) and GUS (2010s cohort, aged 12–14), the prevalence of violent or antisocial acts dropped sharply—e.g., from ~70% of 12-year-olds engaging in at least one offense in the late 1990s to far lower rates today (specific reductions: boys ~50–60%, girls >80%). Police-recorded serious assaults/attempted murders by under-18s remained stable at ~550 annually from 2008/09 to 2017/18. Broader violent crime convictions fell most among young men, explaining much of Scotland’s overall crime drop since the early 2000s.

Sources at: https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1998660120302026957

In England?

Youth violence in England (primarily tracked for ages 10–24) encompasses physical assaults, knife-related offences, homicides, and related serious violence. Data sources include the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) for victimisation trends, police-recorded crime for offences, and hospital admissions for injuries. Overall, long-term trends (2000–2025) show a U-shaped pattern: steady declines in general violence from the early 2000s to around 2012 [two years into Tory austerity] , followed by rises in serious youth violence (particularly knife-enabled incidents) from 2013 onward, with some recent stabilisations or modest declines in 2024–2025. This rise contrasts with broader crime reductions, driven by factors like reduced youth services funding (halved since 2012/13) and socioeconomic pressures in urban areas. https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1998660120302026957