Professor John Robertson OBA

In the Guardian yesterday, the above and:

Without secure supplies and adequate subsurface storage, the UK has come close to running out of gas, most notably in March 2013, when we were within hours of doing so.

Given that 85% of the roughly 30m homes in the UK currently rely on gas for heating and cooking, pivoting away from the energy source is not going to happen soon. Furthermore, gas provides more than half of our electricity base load on cold, windless and dark days, meaning it’s critical that we have supplies for national security.

As the article pointed out, the Ormen Lange gas field and Langeled pipeline are critical points of failure. The alternatives are either to ensure we continue responsible production from domestic fields in UK waters, or to ramp up and pay for high-carbon intensity liquid natural gas imports from sources like Qatar and the US, which are far worse for the global climate and lead to the risk of price spikes that ultimately increase bills.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/dec/05/homegrown-gas-is-vital-for-uk-energy-security

Would an independent Scotland face the same problem?

You know the answer. Does AI?

Key Figures for 2023

Metric	Value	Notes
Production	~240 TWh (est.)	Equivalent to 20.6 mtoe. Represents ~62% of UK total gas production (387 TWh). Down ~3-5% from 2022 due to natural field decline. Includes all gas from Scottish waters; ~95% exported to the UK grid via St. Fergus terminal.
Consumption	42.7 TWh	Final end-use only (down 2% from 43.6 TWh in 2022). Accounts for 66% of Scotland’s total final energy consumption (64.5 TWh), mainly for heating (91% of heat demand).

Trends and Context

• Production Surplus: Scotland produces 5-6 times more gas than it consumes annually, making it a net exporter. In 2017 (latest detailed injection data), ~329 TWh entered the UK grid at St. Fergus, with only ~18% (59 TWh) used domestically—though actual final consumption is lower after accounting for grid losses and non-Scottish demand.
• 2024 Estimates: Production is projected at 228 TWh (est.), reflecting a 5% decline. Consumption data for 2024 is not yet finalized but expected to remain stable or slightly lower (42 TWh) amid mild weather and efficiency gains.
• Units Conversion Note: To arrive at TWh from mtoe, multiply by 11.63 (standard energy equivalence for natural gas). For example, 2019 production of 23.2 mtoe = (23.2 × 11.63) ≈ 270 TWh. Recent estimates adjust for updated field data.
• Economic Impact: Gas production contributed ~£3-4 billion in sales value in 2023 (fluctuating with prices), supporting ~196,000 jobs. However, the sector faces transition pressures toward net-zero, with focus on carbon capture and hydrogen blending.

For raw data tables (e.g., supply/use balances in GWh), refer to the Scottish Government’s Oil and Gas Production Statistics (updated September 2025), which include field-level breakdowns consistent with UK totals.

Production 240 TWh, consumption 42.7 TWh – 5 to 6 times produced as consumed with a surplus of around 200 TWh. That means huge export value once independent, year after year!

Value of the 200 TWh surplus on the market:

Bottom line (most realistic range for a major exporter in 2025):
$40–55 billion US dollars per year [£41 billion] if sold on the international market (Europe/Asia) at prevailing prices.

Sources:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/oil-and-gas-production-statistics/

https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1995793090544652759

Source for calculations – https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1997586933061492811