Professor John Robertson OBA

This comparative assessment of the effectiveness in reducing child poverty with Labour's newly announced Child Poverty Strategy or Scotland's now established Child Payment has not been directly biased in favour of the views of Labour, the SNP or me but, unavoidably, will have been impacted by the weight of the recent media presence of the former.

Nevertheless, I feel sure that Grok AI does not have a dog in this fight, based on my recent experience with it, when it comes to the Scottish context.

So, will Labour’s new child poverty strategy work as well as Scotland’s Child Payment?

Overview of the StrategiesLabour’s Child Poverty Strategy, published on December 5, 2025, is a UK-wide, decade-long plan aimed at tackling the root causes of child poverty through a mix of income boosts, cost reductions, and local support. It promises the largest reduction in child poverty since records began, projecting 550,000 children lifted out of relative poverty by 2030 (around 500,000 by the end of this parliament). Key elements include:

• Abolishing the two-child benefit cap from April 2026, expected to help 450,000 children (costing £3 billion over the parliament).
• Expanding free school meals and breakfast clubs for primary schools, projected to lift 100,000 children out of poverty by 2028.
• Support for affordable childcare, faster exits from temporary housing (e.g., ending stays in B&Bs beyond legal limits), and cheaper baby formula.
• Broader measures like family hubs (reviving Sure Start-style services) and tackling in-work poverty, which affects nearly three-quarters of poor children.

The strategy is described as a “moral mission” by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with annual progress updates. However, critics like the Child Poverty Action Group note it’s a “first step” and lacks bolder targets, such as an essentials guarantee or full replication of devolved successes.In contrast, Scotland’s Child Payment (SCP) is a targeted, devolved cash benefit introduced by the SNP in 2021, providing £27.15 per week (about £1,400 annually) per eligible child under 16 to low-income families on Universal Credit or Child Tax Credit. It’s part of the “Best Start” family payments suite, benefiting over 330,000 children as of September 2025, with a 94% take-up rate. The SCP is credited with driving Scotland’s unique divergence: child poverty fell 4 percentage points (from 26% to 22% in one-year data for 2023-24), making Scotland the only UK nation seeing a decline, with rates 6-9 points below the UK average (23% vs. 30-31%).

Effectiveness Comparison

To assess if Labour’s strategy will “work as well as” the SCP, we can compare on key metrics: scale of impact, speed, evidence base, and limitations. Both address poverty (currently affecting 4.45 million UK children, including 250,000 in Scotland), but they differ in design—Labour’s is holistic but slower, while the SCP is direct cash transfer with immediate effects.

Aspect	Labour’s Child Poverty Strategy	Scotland’s Child Payment (SCP)
Projected Impact	550,000 children out of relative poverty by 2030 (UK-wide); 450,000 from two-child cap alone.	Keeps 40,000 children out of relative poverty annually (2025-26); overall policies keep 70,000 out, rising to 100,000 by 2028-29.
Speed of Impact	Phased rollout; e.g., two-child cap from 2026, breakfast clubs ongoing. Short-term lift: ~100,000 by 2028.	Immediate: Full effects from 2023-24; poverty fell 1-4 points in first full year, with households gaining £2,600/year (20% income boost for poorest 10%).
Evidence of Success	Projections based on modeling; early wins like free meals expansion. No prior UK-wide equivalent. Charities welcome but call for more (e.g., Save the Children: “bold but not enough”).	Proven: Poverty rate 7 points lower than without SCP; absolute poverty at 30-year low. Only UK region with falling rates amid UK rise.
Cost & Scope	£3bn for two-child cap; broader investments in housing/education. UK-wide, but excludes some migrant families.	£1bn+ annually (Scotland-only); focused on cash, part of £25,000 lifetime family support. High take-up, but “cliff edges” for larger families.
Limitations	Relies on welfare reform amid fiscal constraints; critics say it won’t reach 2030 eradication without bolder cash boosts. UK cuts (e.g., disability benefits) could offset gains.	Missed 2025 interim target (18% goal); rates still ~23% overall. Vulnerable to UK welfare changes (e.g., two-child cap mitigation adds £293/month but doesn’t fully replicate SCP).

Key Insight:

The SCP has already demonstrated tangible, rapid results—lifting families directly and bucking UK trends—while Labour’s strategy is ambitious in scope but untested, with impacts spread over years. Modeling suggests replicating the SCP UK-wide could lift 500,000-700,000 more children out of poverty than current plans. Scotland’s rates fell despite UK austerity, showing cash transfers’ power, but Labour’s multi-pronged approach could sustain longer-term gains if fully funded.

Will Labour’s Strategy Work as Well?

No, not initially, and likely not to the same degree in the short term. The SCP’s direct cash model has proven more effective at quickly reducing poverty (e.g., 4% drop in one year), as it empowers families with flexible spending on essentials like food and heating. Labour’s plan, while comprehensive, mirrors past UK efforts that stalled under fiscal pressures—poverty rose 3 points (730,000 children) from 2010-2023 under Conservatives, partly due to caps like the two-child limit.

That said, Labour’s strategy could outperform long-term if elements like housing support and free meals scale up, potentially exceeding the SCP’s localized impact across the UK. Charities like Barnardo’s estimate 4 million children will still be in poverty by 2029 even with these changes, underscoring the need for Labour to adopt SCP-like universality. Recent X discussions highlight this: SNP figures praise Scotland’s “game-changing” payment while criticizing UK delays, and experts urge replication for 2 million total lifts.

Ultimately, success depends on delivery amid economic headwinds—Labour must avoid repeating austerity pitfalls to match Scotland’s proven model. Eradicating child poverty requires bold, sustained investment, and the SCP sets a high bar that the UK strategy hasn’t yet cleared.

With 4.45 million children in poverty, half-measures won’t eradicate it by 2030; a UK Child Payment could. The evidence demands action—Westminster should learn from Holyrood before another generation pays the price.

To check the 40 sources used for this – https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1997030809992077715