Professor John Robertson OBA

The Herald has an agenda and it’s so clear above – Crime is rising and the SNP is to blame.

I have an agenda too but unlike the MSM I’ve never sought to hide it – some things are improving and we need media balance so that people can correctly assess the quality of their lives under the SNP.

They’re selective to paint a dark picture. I’m selective to try and balance that.

They are correct about sexual crimes though there is research suggesting the increase is at least in part about a greater willingness to report due to social and policing improvements, rather than an actual increase in offending (see below).

From the same place as the Herald headline, I choose instead three forms of crime that do worry folk but because they’re in decline and because some folk think the SNP played a part in that, they’re not on the front pages.

From Recorded Crime in Scotland: year ending September 2025, published today:

These are significant reductions in the last four years, in crimes that can ruin families, and that should clearly be the news to.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-year-ending-september-2025/documents/

In the UK are increases in reported sexual offences in part due to increases in reporting?

Yes, increases in reported sexual offences in the UK are in part due to increases in reporting, alongside other factors such as improved police recording practices and the introduction of new offences. Official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for the year ending March 2025 shows that police-recorded sexual offences reached 205,465 in England and Wales, an 8% rise from the previous year, with rape offences alone up 5% to 71,227. ons.gov.uk +2 However, the ONS emphasizes that these figures do not reliably indicate a true rise in incidents, as “improvements in police recording practices, introduction of new offences, and increased reporting by victims are likely to have contributed to increases in the level of offences in recent years.” ons.gov.uk +4Key Evidence Supporting Increased Reporting

• Victim Willingness: Awareness campaigns, high-profile cases (e.g., the Jimmy Savile scandal and its “Yewtree effect”), and growing societal support have encouraged more victims, including those reporting historical offences, to come forward. For instance, Rape Crisis England & Wales notes that the 32% jump in recorded offences (to 194,683 in the year ending March 2022) largely reflects victims closing the gap between experiences and reports, with only about 1 in 6 victims of rape or assault by penetration reporting to police. rapecrisis.org.uk +3
• Police Practices: Post-2014 reforms mandated better recording of sexual offences, leading to a sharp rise from around 16,000 rape offences in 2012/13 to over 71,000 by 2024/25. This mirrors trends across the UK, including Scotland and Northern Ireland, where similar improvements explain much of the growth. london.gov.uk +2
• Reliable Trend Measure: The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), which surveys victims directly (including unreported crimes), shows relative stability or slower growth in prevalence. For adults aged 16-59, the rate of sexual assault was 2.4% in the year ending March 2025 (down slightly from 2.6% the prior year but up from 1.7% in 2015), suggesting actual victimization levels haven’t surged as dramatically as police data imply. ons.gov.uk +4