Scotland has the lowest difference in excess mortality between summer and winter despite consistently seeing the coldest winters

stewartb

O/T Tho’ staying with the challenges of winter, a newly published research paper published by UK Parliament Post has noteworthy statistics on levels of winter mortality across the UK. It reports a statistic favourable to Scotland and therefore worthy of mention – after all, if not here, where?

(We know that favourable statistics about life in Scotland are strong candidates for media bias by omission and if the same research had reported an unfavourable statistic, someone in BBC Scotland or their ilk would have noticed and amplified it.)

Source: Hassan and Chapman (Sept 9, 2025) Winter mortality. UK Parliament Post. (https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/POST-PN-0752/POST-PN-0752.pdf )

Background: ’Winter mortality in the UK is higher than in some colder European countries, suggesting some of these deaths may be preventable.’

The authors explain: ‘Cold temperatures, infections, fuel poverty and poor housing contribute to winter mortality, particularly among older adults, children and people with long-term health conditions.’

Winter mortality in the UK has been linked to fuel poverty, changes to welfare and pressures on the NHS.’

The authors note: ‘Vaccination programmes for flu, covid- 19 and RSV are effective in reducing winter illness and death, though uptake remains low in some groups.’

The paper’s Table 10 reports on the Excess Winter Mortality Index (EWMI %) for the four nations of the UK in 2023-24 i.e. the number of excess winter deaths expressed as a percentage of the average number of non-winter deaths. An EWMI of 10% indicates that deaths in winter were 10% higher than in the non-winter period.

Here are the comparative figures: England = 9.1%; NI = 13.6%; Scotland = 8.9%; Wales = 9.2%.

So, Scotland has the lowest difference in excess mortality between summer and winter despite Scotland consistently seeing the coldest winters. I understand from web searches that England, Wales and Northern Ireland experience winter temperatures that are an average of around 1.5-2C warmer.

My AI ‘assistant’ ChatGPT sets out in detail multiple, potentially contributing factors behind these statistics – a number relate to effective Scotland-specific public policies – but listing them would test your patience as a reader even more!

Let’s leave the headline figure: let Lisa Summers of BBC Scotland or the Tory’s Gulhane or Labour’s Baillie explain it away or find a way to claim it as a Union dividend, if they so choose!

Leave a comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.