Professor John Robertson OBA

From BBC Highlands and Islands, 29 October 2025

A UK government minister says he recognises the “strength of feeling” about plans to use an Inverness barracks to house asylum seekers. Cameron Barracks is to provide accommodation for 309 men from next month, according to local Lib Dem MP Angus MacDonald. At Westminster, Mr MacDonald challenged Minister of State at the Home Office Alex Norris on the suitability of the site near Inverness city centre. Norris said any impact on communities would be “minimised” and the security of people living in surrounding areas was “paramount”. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx27x1k2rkmo

Two questions arise.

First, how sensible is this move on the light of the current county Lines drugs epidemic with 10 English gangs operating in Inverness brining a sharp increase in drug abuse, drug death, extreme violence, prostitution, child abuse and people trafficking to the city? More on this at:

Despite the Record’s efforts, none of the 10 drug gangs plaguing Inverness is from Glasgow and all are from England

Second, is there any evidence than any of illegal migrants arriving on the south coast did so with the intention of settling in Scotland?

Here is the answer based on a Grok AI response:

No, there are no credible reports of migrants arriving via small boats across the English Channel who explicitly express a desire to settle in Scotland rather than England (or elsewhere in the UK). Small boat crossings overwhelmingly target southeast England (e.g., Dover, Kent), driven by proximity to France, smuggling networks, and perceptions of better opportunities in London’s economy or family ties in England. Once in the UK, asylum seekers are processed nationwide, with the Home Office dispersing them—including to Scotland—based on accommodation availability, not individual preferences for Scotland. Explicit preferences for Scotland are rare and undocumented in public reports; available evidence points to England as the primary destination.This conclusion is based on extensive searches of news archives, government data, and social media discussions up to October 30, 2025. Below, I outline key findings, motivations for crossings, and related dispersal trends.Key Motivations for Small Boat CrossingsMigrants cite economic opportunities, English language familiarity, and existing communities as reasons for targeting the UK, but specifics favor England:

• Economic and Community Ties: A 2023 La Croix analysis (French Catholic newspaper) detailed interviews with Channel crossers, emphasizing London’s job market, diaspora networks (e.g., in construction, hospitality), and easier integration in England over rural or northern UK areas. No mentions of Scotland.
• Language and Urban Pull: BBC and Guardian reports (2023–2025) highlight that many from Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, and Sudan aim for cities like London or Manchester, where English-speaking jobs and support networks exist. Scotland’s colder climate, smaller economy, and Gaelic influences are not cited as draws.
• Smuggling Routes: Crossings are organized via Calais-Dover, with no viable direct routes to Scotland (e.g., North Sea crossings are longer, stormier, and unfeasible for small dinghies).

No reports (e.g., from Home Office stats, Refugee Council, or media like The Times/BBC) document migrants stating “Scotland” as their target during crossings or initial screenings.Dispersal to Scotland: Policy, Not PreferenceScotland receives ~10% of UK asylum housing despite its 8% population share, but this is involuntary:

• Home Office Contracts: Since 2000, Glasgow has housed thousands under a £1.2bn UK-wide deal. Recent expansions (2024–2025) include barracks in Inverness and Stirling for ~2,000 small boat arrivals, per The Times (Oct 28, 2025). Migrants are bused north (up to 500 miles) post-landing, often without choice.
• Low Settlement Rates: Only ~15–20% of dispersed asylum seekers stay in Scotland long-term if granted status, per Migration Scotland data (2024). Many relocate south for jobs/family, indicating low explicit desire to settle north.
• Political Tensions: In 2022, UK minister Robert Jenrick accused Scotland of “refusing” small boat migrants, but fact-checks showed dispersal was occurring—just not at Scotland’s preferred scale. SNP rhetoric welcomes refugees but criticizes forced placements straining housing.

Factor	Evidence of Preference for Scotland?	Typical Destination Preference
Crossing Route	No; 99% land in SE England (Home Office, 2025).	England (Dover/Kent intake units).
Initial Claims	No explicit statements in screenings (Guardian/BBC interviews, 2021–2025).	UK-wide asylum, but ties to English cities.
Long-Term Settlement	Low retention (15–20% stay post-grant, Migration Scotland 2024).	England (e.g., London: 40% of grants).
Media/Social Reports	Zero direct quotes; X posts speculate on policy, not migrant intent.	Economic hubs in England.

Broader Context and Why No Reports?

• Data Gaps: Home Office publishes aggregate stats (e.g., 36,816 small boat arrivals in 2024; 90% claim asylum, 70%+ granted), but not granular “destination preferences.” Refugee orgs like Scottish Refugee Council focus on integration, not pre-arrival wishes.
• Public Opinion: Scottish polls (Migration Policy Scotland, 2024) show 66% support for long-term labor migrant settlement, but this is general—not tied to small boats. X discussions (e.g., #SmallBoats) emphasize England’s “chaos” spilling north, not migrant enthusiasm for Scotland.
• Rare Exceptions: Isolated anecdotes (e.g., 2021 Guardian on Afghan families dispersed to Glasgow) note adaptation, but no pre-crossing intent. No verified cases of migrants risking Channel boats specifically for Scotland.

If new reports emerge (e.g., via Home Office transparency), they could surface in outlets like BBC Scotland or The National. For now, the evidence confirms small boat migrants seek UK entry broadly, with England as the implicit focus.

Sources at: https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1983960217889931335