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By cuckooshoe
The BBC Scotland website yesterday also covered the RCEM report on excess deaths ‘linked’ to long waits, but their focus was on the figures for excess deaths only in Scotland.
The college (RCEM) therefore estimated 818 excess deaths were recorded for people waiting more than 12 hours. This is equal to about 16 deaths a week.
The same BBC article failed to make a comparison with England. Here’s why:
The RCEM published their figures for England on 15 May 2025
Using the Standard Mortality Ratio – a method which calculates that there will be one additional death for every 72 patients that experience an 8–12-hour wait prior to their admission – RCEM estimates that there were 16,644 associated excess deaths related to stays of 12 hours or longer before being admitted. That’s the lives of 320 people lost every week.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Yet another ”union” -the RCEM – pushing stats. that can only dishearten those at the sharp end of the NHS .
Yes , there is a problem with Ambulance waiting times ; yes , there are problems seeing a GP ; yes , there long waiting times for some operations ; yes , there are issues with bed-blocking in hospitals ; …
I have yet to hear an English opposition politician being given the platform by the BBC or ITV when another crisis hits the English NHS . Yet in Scotland the STV and BBC Scotland NEVER fail to allow opposition politicians ( usually Baillie/Gulhane ) the airtime to blame the SNP Government for everything from ambulance waiting times to waiting lists for surgery to the lack of KitKats in NHS cafeterias .
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The imperative to provide context and perspective, and to push for fair and accurate reporting, on all matters concerning NHS Scotland becomes all the more crucial as the 2026 Holyrood election approaches. The British Labour Party and others in opposition in Holyrood aided by mainstream media allies clearly aim to major on NHS Scotland in their campaigning.
This is to add to the responses already made on TuS to the most recent Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) report on NHS Scotland and to the associated media and political reactions.
The RCEM has previously published this on its website: ‘RCEM Explains: Long waits and excess deaths’. (see https://rcem.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/RCEM_Explains_long_waits_and_excess_mortality.pdf)
The document analyses the impact of 12 hour stays in A&E based on 2022 data. It contains a table entitled ‘ Excess deaths calculated using the SMR methodology’. During 2022, the RCEM calculates – by its favoured methodology – the (alleged) number of excess deaths as follows:
England = 23,003 deaths; NI = 1,434 deaths; Scotland = 765 deaths; Wales = 1,717 deaths..
These differences are quite remarkable considering relative population sizes. The RCEM, political opponents of the Scottish Government, the mainstream media in Scotland makes NOTHING of these statistical comparisons.
Importantly, there is no evidence that the relative differences between NHS Scotland and the NHS across the rUK on long waits and their impact has changed much since 2022.
On September 12, 2025 the RCEM published a statement under this headline: ‘RCEM ‘deeply concerned’ for winter season ahead after unrelenting summer in England’s A&Es’. It contained this report: ‘The statistics, published this week (11 September 2025) from NHS England, revealed 122,557 patients endured a wait of 12 hours or more last month to be admitted, discharged or transferred.
That’s one in every 11 patients. This is the second highest number who experienced this wait since they began in 2010 for the month of August.’ (my emphasis)
Note: ‘one in every 11 patients’ equates to 9.1% of attendances spending 12 hours in an emergency department in NHS England.
The RCEM also reported: ’35,909 people waited 12 hours or more after the decision to admit them to hospital was made – commonly referred to as a ‘trolley wait’. This is the highest number for the month of August on record. In the same month 10 years ago, there were just 28 patients who experienced this wait. ‘
No mention of ‘excess deaths’ by the RCEM in England.
This should give British Labour Party leadership in Scotland and especially its media allies further cause to reflect on their campaigning rhetoric targeting the Scottish Government – but it won’t! Dr Adrian Boyle, Immediate Past President of the RCEM is quoted: “Earlier this year, the Health Minister said he is ‘determined to consign’ so-called corridor care ‘to the history books’. However, we haven’t seen any tangible and meaningful plan to end this reality.”
On August 21 2025 the RCEM published this statement: ‘Summer surge must be ‘huge wake up call’ for Welsh government as winter looms .’ It reported: ‘The latest performance data, released today (21 August 2025) by Stats Wales, reveals one in seven patients (10,390) waited 12 hours or longer to be admitted, transferred or discharged from major Welsh EDs last month.’
Note: ‘One in seven patients’ equates to 14.3% of attendances spending 12 hours in an emergency department in NHS Wales.
The RCEM adds: ‘That’s 266 more patients who endured this extreme wait compared to June 2025. But to get a sense of the longer-term deterioration, when you compare July 2025 to July 2018, this year saw almost three times as many people waiting 12 hours or more than seven years (sic) despite fewer people (-4%) attending.’ No mention of ‘excess deaths’ in this RCEM statement by the. Way!
This on Labour-run NHS Wales surely should give Ms Baillie and her colleagues in the British Labour Party in Scotland cause to reflect on their campaigning rhetoric? But then why should they given the mainstream media in Scotland’s aversion to context and perspective, and its seeming willingness to act as enablers of political hypocrisy?
For perspective, the RCEM’s statement on excess deaths in Scotland (September 23, 2025) reported that in July and August ‘one in 24’ patients had a 12 hour stay in an NHS Scotland emergency department.
Note: ‘one in 24, equates to 4.2% of attendances spending 12 hours in an emergency department in NHS Scotland – not the c.9% currently typical in NHS England nor the c. 14% in NHS Wales.
And yet which part of the NHS and which responsible government is being targeted and denigrated? The best performers!
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Excellent appraisal.
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A great comment stewartb 👏👏👏
Many thanks for digging into the statistics.
👍
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I remain profoundly sceptical of what “the analysis” tells us in the first place, but from HMS James cook even more so… https://archive.ph/YFGpc
So to the focus of the HMS James Cook piece, one Dr Fiona Hunter – Emergency Medicine Consultant West of Scotland. RCEM examiner. Vice Chair RCEM Scotland. Fair weather cyclist. Standards high, squats low – Glasgow, Joined September 2012 – And from LinkedIn, Kirkintilloch, Scotland, United Kingdom · Consultant Emergency Medicine · NHS Lanarkshire, Consultant Emergency Medicine at NHS Lanarkshire · Experience: NHS Lanarkshire · Location: Kirkintilloch.
To the ” She added: “Often they will be experiencing this, counting the hours they have been in ED (the emergency department), on a trolley in a corridor, cupboard, or simply any available floor space. ” ” – Note the ED – The presumption is she is a practising doctor in a Glasgow A&E where she has personally witnessed what she is asserting, the question remains why she as a ” consultant ” has she not named and shamed the hospital where she witnessed this ? Or is this a case of squats high, standards low, sharing Gulhane’s NHS England lanyard, Damn Jackie Baillie’s hyperbole and ACH-him’s umbrella ?
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