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Professor John Robertson OBA
Summary:
FIRST, in September 2025, King’s College Researchers found that opioid deaths in England & Wales were 50% higher than recorded by the ONS.
SECOND, two years earlier UK Government researchers found massive (25%) undercounting of drugs deaths in England & Wales.
THIRD, though Scotland’s drug death rate may still be higher despite these, the rate is falling fast to meet the soaring rate in England.
Detail and sources below:
Opioid deaths 50% higher than recorded
Last week, BBC UK reported:
More than 13,000 heroin and opioid deaths have been missed off official statistics in England and Wales, raising concerns about the impact on the government’s approach to tackling addiction. Research from King’s College London, shared exclusively with BBC News, found that there were 39,232 opioid-related deaths between 2011 and 2022, more than 50% higher than previously known.
The error has been blamed on the government’s official statistics body not having access to correct data and it is understood ministers are now working with coroners to improve the reporting of deaths. The reliability of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data relies on coroners naming specific substances on death certificates, something which often does not happen.
Then, well down the page:
The flaw in the ONS system is not present in Scotland, where there are no coroners and where National Records Scotland (NRS) is responsible for collating official statistics. Unlike the ONS, the NRS does receive more detailed pathology reports, but differences in how deaths are reported across the UK make it difficult to compare.
Drug deaths in England & Wales undercounted by 25%
In August 2023, two years ago, the UK Civil Service, estimated with convincing argument and evidence, that the data from England is undercounted by up to 25%. If correct, they would rise above the death rate in Scotland.
Here’s a summary of their research:
From Comparability of drug-related death statistics across the United Kingdom by Paul Breen of the UK Civil Service on 4 August 2023, here are, I think, the key points.
First:
The definitions used for drug-related death statistics are consistent across the UK, but there are important differences in data collection methods and in the death registration systems that affect these statistics.Second:
For England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the only information received by the ONS and NISRA is what is included on the death certificate. The amount of information varies and can be very limited. For drug-related deaths in Scotland, NRS receives additional information on the drugs involved.
Second:
The differences mean that the amount of information held on drug-related deaths varies across the UK. In 2021, 25.1% of drug-related deaths registered in England and Wales had no information on the specific substances involved. The equivalent figure for Scotland was 1.9%, and for Northern Ireland the figure was 6.6%. The proportion of drug-related deaths where no information about specific substances is known has remained consistent over time in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Meanwhile, the proportion of these deaths has been increasing over time in England and Wales, with important consequences for drug-related death statistics.
Third:
In most cases a death cannot be called a drug misuse death when no information on the specific substances is known or provided. Because of this, figures for drug misuse are underestimates. But the figure for England and Wales underestimates the number by a far greater extent.
The different levels of missing data mean that the respective figures for drug misuse published by the ONS for England and Wales, NRS for Scotland, and NISRA for Northern Ireland, are not directly comparable.
So, I think this means that around a quarter of all English drug-related deaths are not being counted because the drug is not identified but in Scotland less than a fiftieth fall into this category.
If correct this may mean that not only does Scotland have the highest drug death rate in Europe but so does the whole of the UK and within the UK, Scotland’s rate may be lower than in England.
Even ignoring the above doubts, drug deaths are surging in England & Wales as they plummet in Scotland
England and Wales:
Scotland:
Drug misuse deaths decreased in 2024
Number of drug misuse deaths and 5-year rolling average, 1996 to 2024
Why won’t the media in Scotland report these simple facts?
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