Latest Holyrood poll with SNP overall majority may even be understating that lead and the Reform UK share, with its sample biased toward 2014 referendum and 2024 Westminster results

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Professor John Robertson OBA

The above poll from More in Common with seat projections from Stats for Lefties looks pretty good news for the SNP but its sampling may be understating likely support for the SNP and Reform UK and overstating that for Labour and Cons.

In the extract below, you can see that the sample is heavily biased against Yes supporters (362 to 280 and 367 to 275) and to Labour and Cons based on the General election in July 2024:

https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/vpmbsdkt/scotland-vi-and-approval-september-4.xlsx

Eleven years after the referendum with half a million older voters gone and half a million new young voters arriving, the ratio in the sample should be closer to 50/50 and with the massive disillusion as regards Labour’s performance in the last year, the Cons collapse and the Reform UK surge, the above sample has far too many Labour and Con voters in 2024 and far too few SNP and Reform UK voters to realistically represent the electorate in September 2025.

I’m not an expert on these matters but it seems likely that the SNP and Reform UK would do even better than the above projections, hopefully ousting Jackie Baillie and the Borders Tories and further chopping their number of regional members.

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