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Professor John Robertson OBA
The Record today has:
Cancer patient’s 15 hour wait for A&E doc revealed on day new figures show deadly rise in emergency room delays
The one patient is on the front page. The rise is a one week increase in the figures published yesterday, of from 8901 in the previous week to 9434 but, not mentioned, this is down from 9754 in early June and simply part of a naturally fluctuating pattern over several weeks. Here is the trend over the last year and it’s definitely not a ‘deadly rise.‘ Indeed, it’s slightly down if anything.
The above graph is based on the weekly figures from 11/8/2024 to 10/8/2025, used by the Record to claim ‘deadly rise in emergency room delays.‘ They show a statistically non-significant increase in one week and a statistically significant trend which is slightly down (improved) and not up by any means.
Further, on the ‘deadly‘, the triage system in hospitals ensures that those at immediate risk are treated first. You’d need a massive surge of thousands to put that at risk.
Finally on long waits in A&E:
From A&E activity: month ending 30 May 2025 published today:
There were 28,382 attendances at type 1 departments in NHS Scotland (compared to 27,560 the previous week, and 26,833 weekly average for 2024).Attendances of under 4 hours
19,160 (67.5%) of type 1 attendances were seen and resulted in a subsequent admission, transfer or discharge within 4 hours (compared to 18,367 (66.6%) the previous week, and 17,357 (64.7%) weekly average for 2024).Attendances of over 8 hours
2,852 (10%) patients spent more than 8 hours in a type 1 Department (compared to 3,108 (11.3%) the previous week, and 3,364 (12.5%) weekly average for 2024).Attendances of over 12 hours
1,104 (3.9%) patients spent more than 12 hours in a type 1 Department (compared to 1,204 (4.4%) the previous week, and 1,490 (5.6%) weekly average for 2024). https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/healthcare-system/urgent-and-unscheduled-care/accident-and-emergency/main-points/emergency-departments/
The above reveal increased attendance yet reduced numbers waiting, for each of the three waiting times measures – improved performance across the board.
In NHS England for the same period, also in Type 1, only 61.2% were treated within 4 hours. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/ae-waiting-times-and-activity/
This 6.3% difference, 10.3% better than 61.2%, means around 2 800 Scots were treated within 4 hours who would not have been had NHS England standards applied here and around 280 000 in England would have been been treated within 4 hours in England, had NHS Scotland standards applied there.
NHS England does not publish 8 hour data but 42 891 waited more than 12 hours, 40 times in crude terms, 4 times per head of population than the 1 104 in Scotland
How did Scotland’s media cover the above? They ignored it. STV used the one-week figures at the end of May to offer this – Scottish Government under fire over ‘swelling’ queues in A&E!
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Reporting an example of poor performance by a big, complex institution is linked to dodgy trend analysis by an agenda-driven newspaper – another mainstream news outlet in Scotland typically averse to the provision of context, perspective and comparative analysis. It achieves the objectivve for the British Labour Party and Unionist cause. in Scotland. It amplifies the false messaging that ‘NHS Scotland is crap’ and ‘it’s all that SNP’s fault’ towards voters in advance of the 2026 Holyrood election.
After a gap of a couple of months, the Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) has issued (August 14) a press statement on the waiting times performance of A&E services in NHS England: ‘If this is summer, what will winter be like?’: England’s EDs experience second worse July on record for 12 hour waits.’
Here are the key points included in the RCEM’s statement:
63.1% of patients in Type 1 emergency departments were seen within the target of four hours.
‘On 12 hour waits: ‘.. 22,852 patients faced a wait of 12 hours or more last month. This is the second highest number who endured this wait on record since they began in 2010 for the month of July. It means one in 12 patients experienced this stay to be admitted, transferred or discharged last month.’ That’s 8.3%.
‘There were 1,469,050 attendances to major EDs – the busiest July on record, the busiest month so far this year, and the second highest number of attendances on record.’
Second highest ever? This statistic and the rankings the RCEM provides indicates serious negative issues associated with population health and/or the functioning of England’s primary care and probably linked also to NHS England’s elective treatment services.
Dr Adrian Boyle, President of the RCEM is quoted: “We have thousands of patients enduring extremely long stays, often on a trolley in a corridor, through no fault of their own, because there are no available beds on wards for them to move to..’ And: “They are being put at risk of serious harm because the system is in crisis.”
How long is it going to take NHS England and the Westminster government to adopt the British Labour Party in Scotland’s – aka Jackie Baillie’s – ready and waiting magic solution to the ills of A&E?
On August 5, the RCEM issued a statement on the equivalent performance statistics for NHS Scotland, for the month of June. It noted that 69.7% of attendances met the 4 hour standard – far from good enough but considerably better the performance of NHS England.
The RCEM also reported that in June 4.35% of patients spent 12 hours in an emergency department – far from good enough but considerably better than the performance of NHS England. The RCEM’s headline on Scotland included ‘unacceptable and dangerous’.
For the week ending August 10, Public Health Scotland reported 4.1% patients spent more than 12 hours in a Type 1 Department (compared to 3.7% the previous week, and 5.6% weekly average for 2024). One week’s drop in performance from 3.7% to 4.1% is headline news in Scotland all the while the latest equivalent figure for NHS England is 8.3% – ‘the second highest number who endured this wait on record since they began in 2010 for the month of July’. Was this NHS England performance reported by ANY mainstream news outlet never mind make it to the front page?
Meanwhile in NHS Wales during June 15% of attendances at major emergency departments (equivalent to Type 1s) spent 12 hours or more. Another example of where the British Labour Party’s ‘new direction’ for Scotland might lead if it becomes the government after the 2026 Holyrood election?
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