The Scottish values that Reform UK cannot align with, but which produce an ‘impenetrable wall’ of support for the SNP?

Professor John Robertson OBA

My column in this month’s Scots Independent:

A recent survey by pollster More in Common for GB News, has cast doubt on Reform UK’s prospects in Scotland and suggests an ‘impenetrable wall’ of support for the SNP.

On 19 July 2025, GB News reported:

Reform UK’s hopes of generating a tartan tidal wave have been handed a damning verdict as a pollster has told GB News that the party’s values do not fully resonate with Scottish voters. According to a recent MRP poll by think tank More in Common, the SNP is set to make a major comeback in the next general election, returning to…..

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9 thoughts on “The Scottish values that Reform UK cannot align with, but which produce an ‘impenetrable wall’ of support for the SNP?”

  1. Reform and its leader are essentially English (British) nationalists and supports Neoliberal economic policies. Until the mid 1950s a significant proportion of Scottish voters voted Tory, despite their policies being contrary to the economic needs of a large proportion of the voters. With the growth of the SNP and increasing demands for independence, the unionists – whether Tory (Formerly the Scottish Unionist Party), Labour and the LibDems – have coalesced substantially, not just in opposition to Scottish independence, but increasingly on economic and social policy.
    The Conservative Party in the U.K. has been one of the most electorally successful parties anywhere (largely because it created most of the electoral rules) and this is due to a significant degree to being able to change according to prevailing circumstances and by being able to absorb other groups. In its current guise, it is, probably, terminally ill. However, two things will probably enable it to re-emerge in an electorally successful way. Firstly, by a significant number of its activists and voters moving to Reform. Secondly, by the growing emergence of ‘blue’ Labour, whose theorist, Maurice Glasman, explicitly declares that he wants the Starmer-led Labour Party to ‘occupy the ground’ the dying Tories used to occupy. Many Labour voters in Scotland have shown willingness to vote Tory and Tory voters to vote Labour ‘to keep out the Nats’. So a grouping of Reform and a block of two flags Starmer’s party could well become a renascent English(British) Party.

    It is likely that a substantial tranche of Scottish voters – not approaching a majority- could support it. With the overwhelming anti independence media, this could make independence difficult to achieve.

    But, on the other hand, the alienated in England, who loathe the racism and inegalitarianism of Reform and the non redistributive Labour Party, could lead to increasing social disorder making England fissiparous. Maybe, the UK could fall apart, because it’s biggest part, England, falls apart.

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    1. Substituting “Highly likely” for maybe in ” Maybe, the UK could fall apart, because it’s biggest part, England, falls apart ” would be a more accurate summation…..

      Reform are essentially the more extreme wing of the Tory party in southern England, kept under wraps for years lest it alienate the party from the majority of England on which they have depended to keep returning to power.

      It’s all going to get rather messy in England…

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        1. It’s possible, but not in the 2026 timeframe – The Labour Party and it’s values have strong roots in Scotland, but Sarwar and Baillie alike squandered it by ‘it’s just politics’ – You don’t get to ‘tsunami’ this, or ‘read my lips’ that any more, Scotland’s awareness of bullshit began to climb under Sarah Smith and the disdain for the BBC has gone through the roof since El Cookie took over.

          Sarwar has totally screwed over Labour credibility in Scotland with stage props from the GMB and undoubtedly the most facile nonsense from Baillie – I’d guess Corbyn could be a huge attraction when Anas wi teeth’s inevitable resignation comes and Damn Tsunami declines being annointed as the next victim, but it is in reality the disintegration of UK/England politics we are witnessing.

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  2. Reform ( as perceived by Nigel Farage ) is a non-starter in Scotland –

    unless you believe that a privileged , privately educated , xenophobic , casually racist , former City of London wide-boy is your idea of a caring , progressive , empathetic leader .

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