Professor John Robertson OBA

From Safer Communities and Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report: July 2025 published today, some key points getting no media attention:

There were 16,553 full-time equivalent (FTE) police officers in Scotland on 31 March 2025. This was 319 (+2.0%) more officers compared to the position on 31 March 2007, and 197 (+1.2%) more than on 31 March 2024.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/safer-communities-and-justice-statistics-monthly-data-report-july-2025/pages/statistics-on-policing/

How much has crime fallen in Scotland. From a Grok AI question:

Since 2007, crime in Scotland has significantly decreased, with various sources indicating a substantial decline in overall recorded crime and specific crime categories. According to the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) and police recorded crime statistics, overall crime has fallen by approximately 40-45% since 2006/07. Specifically, the SCJS reported a 42% reduction in crime from 2008/09 to 2017/18, and posts on X have cited a 40% decrease in recorded crime since 2007. By 2022/23, police recorded crime was noted to be at one of the lowest levels since 1974, with a 45% drop in overall crime since 2008/09.

Violent crime has seen an even steeper decline, with a reported 46% reduction in violent crime from 2008/09 to 2017/18 according to the SCJS, and a 39% decrease in violent crime since 2008 as per 2021 figures. Homicides have also dropped significantly, with a 65% reduction since 2005, and by 2022/23, the murder rate was at its lowest level since modern records began. The number of homicide victims halved from 2007 to 2013/14, with further reductions to 52 in 2022/23.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2023-24/pages/5/

In terms of specific crime rates, the national crime rate per 10,000 population was 1,007 in 2004/05, dropping to 561 by 2023/24, reflecting a significant decline. Crimes of dishonesty, which include theft, housebreaking, and shoplifting, decreased by 74% from their peak in 1991 to 2019/20. Fire-raising and vandalism crimes fell by 43% from 2011/12 to 2020/21.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/916472/crime-rate-of-scotland-uk/ https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2019-2020/pages/3/ https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2020-2021/pages/3/

Does Scotland have more police officers per head of population to achieve this falling crime?

Again from Grok:

The police officer ratio, typically measured as the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) police officers per 100,000 people, varies across England, Scotland, and Wales. Based on the most recent available data from 2024:

• England and Wales: As of March 31, 2024, there were 147,746 FTE police officers for a combined population of approximately 59.6 million (based on 2021 Census estimates). This equates to roughly 247 officers per 100,000 people.
• https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn00634/ https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-workforce-england-and-wales-31-march-2024/police-workforce-england-and-wales-31-march-2024
• Scotland: As of March 31, 2024, there were 16,356 FTE police officers for a population of approximately 5.5 million. This results in about 295 officers per 100,000 people. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn00634/ https://policepromotion.blog/2024/07/30/police-workforce-2024-part-1-officer-numbers-across-uk-and-ireland/
• Wales (specific breakdown): Wales, included in the England and Wales figures, has about 8,076 FTE officers (as of 2023) for a population of roughly 3.1 million, yielding approximately 260 officers per 100,000 people. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn00634/

These figures reflect FTE officer counts and population estimates, with Scotland maintaining a higher ratio than England and Wales combined, and Wales slightly higher than the overall England and Wales average.

Scotland thus has around 30% more police officers per head of population than England does.