Paul Hutcheon – More people in England than in Scotland are economically inactive due to long-term sickness – Have the figures prompted calls for the Labour Government to give people the support they need to get back to work?

Professor John Robertson OBA

From the Daily Record yesterday, the above and:

Over a quarter of a million Scots are out of work due to long-term sickness or having a disability after a rise caused by the pandemic. The SNP Government has now been urged to invest more in mental health and the NHS to help people back find jobs. New figures reveal there are an estimated 269,000 people in Scotland aged 16-64 who gave their reason for being inactive as long-term sick or disabled.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/over-260000-scots-out-work-35625432

All things being equal, we might expect the figure for England to be around 2.69 million.

From Statista:

In England, approximately 2.78 million people were economically inactive due to long-term sickness in the first quarter of 2025, a slight decrease from a peak of over 2.84 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1388245/uk-sick-leave-figures/

So, per head of population, more people in England than in Scotland, are economically inactive due to long-term sickness? The figures have prompted calls for the Labour Government to give people the support they need to get back to work?

6 thoughts on “Paul Hutcheon – More people in England than in Scotland are economically inactive due to long-term sickness – Have the figures prompted calls for the Labour Government to give people the support they need to get back to work?”

  2. The number of people economically inactive due to long term sickness or disability is a UK-wide ‘problem’ . From the Bevan Foundation on the situation in Wales where the Daily Record’s favoured political party, the British Labour Party has been in power for c.26 years (see https://www.bevanfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/SoW-Get-Wales-Working-Feb-25.pdf ):

    • ‘.. Wales has high rates of disability and economic inactivity
    • ‘Long-term illness is now the main reason why people are economically inactive. More than 162,000 people in Wales say they are not working because of long-term illness’
    • ‘Five of the UK’s ten local authorities with the highest rates of economic inactivity because of long-term illness are in Wales.’

    The Foundation’s report adds: ‘Across the UK, around a quarter of people aged 16 to 64 have a long-term health condition that limits their day-to-day activities (which means that they are classed as disabled). In Wales the proportion of people who have a long-term health condition is higher, at 28% in September 2024. This is the second highest proportion in the UK, with more than half a million people of working age in Wales being disabled. Wales’s above average rate of disability means that there are 72,000 more disabled people of working age than if Wales had the UK rate.’

    And: ‘.. more than one in three people is disabled in Torfaen (38.1%), Merthyr Tydfil (36.6%), Bridgend (35.3%) and Neath Port Talbot (34.2%).’

    In concluding, the report states: ‘Addressing the scale of economic inactivity caused by long-term illness in Wales will require additional, intensive effort and resources. The UK Government will need to consider how it will focus its own efforts on areas of greatest need, and also consider how to resource devolved services. It would not be appropriate to use the Barnett formula, whose population-based formula would fall far short of need.’ (My emphasis)

    ChatGPT confirms that Labour-run Wales has the highest rate: ‘Around 27-30% of the economically inactive population in Wales reports being so due to long-term illness or disability. This is higher than the UK average, which hovers around 21-24%.’

    ChatGPT states that the top ten local authorities with highest rates of economic inactivity due to long term illness in addition to those in Wales includes Blackpool, Hull, Bradford, Wakefield and Barnsley. It reports that North Ayrshire is typically the Scottish LA with the highest rate, typically ranked between 15 and 20 in the UK.

    Such contributions are not ‘whataboutery’ but written to challenge the negative framing – context, perspective and comparison-free – about Scotland so prevalent amongst most mainstream media outlets. And in this particular instance, it is to call out to the Daily Record for not practicing a higher standard of objectivity when it comes to the track record of the British Labour Party governing with devolved powers.

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  3. O/T but on the theme of the British Labour Party’s track record in government with devolved powers.

    NHS Wales’ performance shows that Labour governing with devolved powers – even after c. 12 months with Labour in power in Westminster and c.26 years in power in Cardiff – does NOT have the solution to long A&E waiting times.

    As we approach the election to the Holyrood parliament in 2026, voters in Scotland should take careful note – unless of course the leadership of the British Labour Party in Scotland is keeping a game changing wheeze for the salvation of Scotland EDs a closely guarded secret – even from Labour ministers in Cardiff! Has Labour fanzine, the Daily Record been sworn to secrecy?

    On July 25, the Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) issued this press release: ‘Summer provides no respite as Welsh EDs experience worst month on record for four hour waits.’ (ED = emergency department)

    It reports ‘The latest performance data released yesterday (24 July 2025) reveals almost 1 in 2 patients (31,701) waited four hours or longer to be admitted, transferred or discharged from major EDs in June. That’s despite a lower number of attendances compared to the previous month.

    ‘In Wales, the target is that 95% of patients should be seen, discharged, or admitted within four hours. Last month, it was 53.2%. (my emphasis)

    ‘The figures, released by the Welsh Government, also revealed nearly one in four patients (16,622) waited eight hours or longer.‘ So c.25% spending over 8 hours.

    ‘Meanwhile, almost one in six patients (10,124) endured a wait of 12 hours or more. That’s 15% of attendances – the same percentage when compared to May and 3.5 times higher than the same month in 2018 (6,239).’

    RCEM Vice President for Wales is quoted: “People are lining our corridors, on trolleys, watching the clock tick by, often waiting for an elusive in-patient bed to become available. And while four-hour waits are inconvenient, we know extreme waits are undignified and dangerous for our patients.

    “These figures should sound alarm for the Welsh government. Increasing capacity and flow throughout our hospitals needs to be at the top of their agenda. If this is where we are in summer – I am concerned about what we will be facing this winter.”

    Meanwhile, the performance figures for equivalent emergency departments in Scotland for May (from Public Health Scotland):

    67.1% of attendances met the 4 hour standard. Recall – for Wales in June it was 53.2%!

    12,672 out of 125,779 attendances spent over 8 hours I.e. 10.1%. Recall – for Wales in June it was 25%!

    4,863 out of 125,779 attendances spent over 12 hours I.e 3.9%. Recall – for Wales in June it was 15%!

    These are huge differences! Public Health Scotland reports that the average waits performance of NHS Scotland’s Type 1 emergency departments across 2024 was as follows: on the 4 hour standard, 64.7% weekly average; 12.5% of attendances spending more than 8 hours; 5.6% spending over 12 hours.

    So yes a gradual improvement it seems, but still much room for improvement in NHS Scotland. However, there is no indication from these comparisons with Wales that British Labour Party politicians have a track record in being able to effect substantial improvement. Far from it: NHS Scotland performs better by far than its Welsh counterpart on these key metrics – and has for a long time!

    To avoid any misunderstanding, my aim here is not to have a pop at the NHS in Wales, not even at the Welsh government: Wales suffers from many of the problems caused by the devolution settlement and many years of Westminster imposed austerity just like Scotland. No, the purpose is to expose the British Labour Party politicians and their media allies in Scotland who seek to deceive voters here into believing that Labour – and only Labour – have the solutions that Scotland needs and wants. Based on Labour’s track record in Wales, such a position reeks of hypocrisy!

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    1. FFS, by Sarah Smith….

      One interesting observation on your link was that for the briefest moment, I could see what you see of the webpage in Scotland, before it refreshed to the furrnr version, here archived https://archive.ph/S0cCV

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