By stewartb – a long read

British Labour Party MSPs and MPs are ramping up the negative rhetoric about Scotland in advance of the 2026 Holyrood election. And the mainstream media for the most part are playing their part in communicating Labour’s campaign messages – with little challenge, without context, without perspective, and without cross-UK comparative analysis.

Moreover, British Labour Party MPs, elected to represent Scottish constituencies, have been standing up every week at PMQs to put a ‘question’ designed ONLY to denigrate the Scottish Government and Scotland’s (devolved) public services. All to entertain their colleagues from English constituencies and the MPs from other Unionist parties, or to ingratiate themselves with the Labour Party’s whips and leadership? (The content is sometimes so egregious that one can imagine those voters described in some quarters as ‘proud Scotbuts’ may be offended.)  But hey, it’s such good fun!

These MPs shun basic cross-UK comparisons because: (i) they would run counter to the ‘SNPbad’ narrative they aim – with the aid of BBC Scotland, The Herald, the Daily Record and others – to lodge in the minds of the Scottish electorate; and (ii) they would reveal that governments with devolved powers in Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh are severely limited in what they can do to counter Westminster governments’ harmful impacts on the whole of the UK.

Here in Scotland, it’s ‘time for change’ is Labour’s call! The SNP has been in power since 2007: by 2026 this will amount to 19 continuous years. But let’s not forget,the British Labour Party has governed in Wales since 1999/2000: by the time of the election for the Senedd in 2026 that will be 26 or 27 continuous years.

Time to assess Labour’s track record and legacy. How is Wales faring? How does the present state of Wales within the Union reflect on governance by the British Labour Party constrained to using devolved powers? These are legitimate areas for investigation to assess the credibility of the Labour Party as the next government in Edinburgh and to acknowledge the limitations of governments in Wales (in Scotland and NI) whilst in the Union.

Context

A Welsh Government report (more on which later) has this to say about Wales in the Union:

‘Given the dominance of the block grant in the Welsh Government budget, sustainability of the budget to meet public service needs in future will depend to a large extent on UK Government spending decisions relating to public services in England. (my emphasis)

‘If the equivalent services in England are adequately funded, then the future adequacy of funding in Wales will depend on whether the demand for those services is growing at a different rate to that in England. The relative performance of the devolved taxes will have a smaller but still important impact.’

Of course ‘devolved taxes’ are narrow in scope relative to the fiscal powers retained by Westminster. And what if the equivalent services in England are NOT adequately funded ….? The above is as relevant to the understanding of findings from a backward look as it is to a forward one.

Source: Welsh Government (December 2024) Wales Economic and Fiscal Report 2024 (https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-12/wales-economic-and-fiscal-report-2024.pdf )

On poverty in Wales

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) has just published a comprehensive report on poverty in Wales.

Source: Joseph Rowntree Foundation (June 2025) Poverty in Wales 2025 – The essential guide to understanding poverty in Wales.

From the foreword of the report there is this: ’latest analysis brings no such good news, with headline rates of poverty flatlining in the 2 decades since [the mid-1990s]. That is bad enough, but most worrying of all is the rise in very deep poverty. Today, almost half of all people in poverty in Wales have incomes so low that they are in this extreme situation: this means more people forced to use food banks, unable to heat their homes or living in temporary accommodation. The human cost of poverty, especially deep poverty, and its impact on public services are huge.’

Here the JRF adds: ‘Underlying this 21st-century social failure are many years of deep cuts to social security, along with a shortage of decent jobs and affordable housing. A fair and adequate social security system is, of course, a UK Government responsibility, but there is much that the Welsh Government can do to complement the UK system.’ But why has the Labour Welsh government not done so adequately, successfully by now, after all it has had devolved power for 27 years?

The JRF adds: ‘Poverty matters. It is in every community in Wales, amongst people of all ages, all backgrounds and in all types of families. It blights lives and costs the public purse.’

The JRF provides some comparative assessments: based on this evidence, they hardly indicate that the British Labour Party governing with devolved powers offers what Scotland needs!

• On destitution in Wales (page 16), ‘the deepest and most damaging form of poverty’: ‘0.90% of households in Wales experienced destitution – that is, they were unable to afford basic essentials on a weekly basis. This figure is similar to the UK average (0.92%) and England (0.93%), but it remains higher than Scotland (0.81%)’.
  • Since 2017, Wales has seen a faster rise in destitution rates than Scotland, a rate of increase at 0.92% in Wales compared to 0.81% in Scotland and a Great Britain average rate of 0.92%. All such rates are to be deplored but what difference has a Labour government in Cardiff made after 26 years?

• On costs of childcare in Wales (p.22): in Wales, parents saw increases of 9.7% in the cost of part-time nursery childcare for under-2s between 2024 and 2025, and 7.2% for 2-year-olds (Coram, 2025). In Scotland, costs increased substantially less, by 6.9% and 6.5% respectively.
  • The average full-time place in a nursery for a 3- and 4-year-old costs £119.23 a week, a 5.6% increase on 2024.  In Scotland, the equivalent nursery place costs £105.88 per week, a 3.7% increase on last year, again substantially less.

• Variations in child poverty across the UK (p. 28): of the UK countries and English regions, Wales ranks in the middle for child poverty rates. These are the areas with the lowest rates: East England (23%), Northern Ireland (23%), Scotland (24%), the South East (25%) and the South West (27%). Areas with the highest child poverty rates are the West Midlands (39%), the North West (37%), London (32%), the North East (30%), the East Midlands (30%), and Yorkshire and the Humber (29%). Why is Labour in Wales after 27 years in government not ensuring better outcomes for children?

• On work (p. 43): ‘On a macro level, 19 out of the 22 LAs [Local Authorities] in Wales are in the bottom half of LAs across Great Britain for hourly pay at the 20th percentile, according to the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Of the 350 LAs in England, Wales and Scotland with hourly pay data at the 20th percentile, the average position for the 22 Welsh LAs is 248, compared to 174 for the 295 English LAs and 122 for the 32 LAs in Scotland. This suggests a chronic low pay issue in Wales compared to England and Scotland.’ Why is this the case after 27 years of Labour governing in Cardiff with devolved powers?

• On industrial development (p. 43): ‘Compared to England or Scotland, Wales has a notably higher share of industry in industrial groups with a lower median pay and, relatedly, a lower share of industry in industrial groups with higher median pay.’ Why is this the case after 27 years of Labour governing in Cardiff?

• On food insecurity and food parcel distribution (p. 64): ‘If we compare the percentage change in food parcel distribution between 2022/23 and 2023/24 across the UK, we see an overall increase in most nations. England recorded a 5% rise, Northern Ireland saw the highest increase at 11%, and Wales experienced a 1% increase. Scotland was the only country not to see a rise, with a marginal 0.1% decrease.’ and on the longer term trend, the ‘rise in food aid is even more striking when compared to 5 years ago (2018/19). Since then, Northern Ireland has seen a 143% increase, followed by England (109%), Wales (61%), and Scotland (21%).’

The JRF provides a number of additional insights into the state of Wales after 26 years of a British Labour Party government in Cardiff. The JRF does not provide comparative statistics for these but regardless, the evidence is clear: the legacy of 27 years of the British Labour Party governing with devolved powers in Cardiff leaves a lot to be desired! 

• On savings and debt of the adult population in Wales (p. 65): ‘As of 2020–23, 72% of households in the bottom income quintile (the lowest 20% by income) had no savings or savings below £1,500 – leaving them highly vulnerable to unexpected financial shocks and more likely to fall into debt. This proportion has remained persistently high over the past 3 decades, fluctuating at around 80% from 1994–97 to 2016–19, before dipping slightly in recent years.’
  • ‘Financial hardship has become the new norm for many communities in Wales (Davies and Evans, 2024) as the cost-of-living crisis continues to strain household budgets. Recent data highlights a concerning trend: the proportion of individuals borrowing money due to financial pressures has risen sharply, from 17% in May 2021 to 30% by September 2024 – nearly 1 in 3 people in Wales.’
  • ‘Recent data shows a growing number of families falling behind on at least one bill. In May 2021, 10% of individuals reported being at least a month in arrears; by September 2024, this had risen to 15%, meaning that 1 in 7 people have been unable to cover their household bills for at least a month. The proportion of those behind on utility payments also increased, from 6% in May 2021 to 9% in September 2024.’

• On health and poverty (p. 67): ‘Male life expectancy in the most deprived areas has fallen by 4 months and female life expectancy by 10 months since 2011–13 (Public Health Wales Observatory, 2022). The same pattern emerges when comparing the healthy life expectancy of people in the most and least deprived areas of Wales, with a large healthy life expectancy gap between the 2. The healthy life expectancy gap is 13.4 years for males and 16.9 years for females in Wales.’
  • ‘Those aged 16–34 and in poverty have seen the greatest increase in the proportion living in less than good health and are now 30% more likely to live in less good health than they were in 2012–15. People aged 35–49 and 50–64 are the 2 groups which see a reduction in the proportion living in less than good health since 2012–15, of approximately 10 percentage points each.’

• On education and poverty (p.70): ‘The Welsh Government recently published the attainment difference (in months) by FSM [Free School Meal] status. In Year 6, children in receipt of FSM are over 2 years behind students not on FSM in numeracy (reasoning) and reading (English and Welsh) and just less than 2 years behind in procedural numeracy (Welsh Government, 2024c).’‘Attainment gaps persist from primary into secondary education. In Wales, there is a 29-percentage-point gap in the GCSE entries awarded an A*–C grade.’And in summary: ‘we can be certain that there has consistently been a gap between the least and most disadvantaged children and that this is not new and will not close soon with current rates of progress.’

On health services in Wales

See this account from TuS on June 19: https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2025/06/19/nhs-wales-slipping-into-crisis-after-27-years-of-labour-mis-rule/

On the Welsh economy

Returning to the Welsh Government’s ‘Wales Economic and Fiscal Report 2024’, from the Executive Summary:

• ‘Wales’ economic growth per person up to 2022 has been similar to other UK countries and English regions but remains lower than the UK average, comparable to the North East of England.’

• ‘Household incomes in Wales are estimated to be around 5% below the UK average when using the median after housing costs for 2020-21 to 2022-23.’

• ‘The Welsh Government faces severe fiscal challenges, with increasing demand for public services and higher levels of need than in England.’

And from the main report:

• On Wales’ economic output (page 10): ‘In 2022, which is the latest year of available data, GDP per person in Wales was £27,274, equivalent to 74.0% of the UK average. Of the 12 UK countries and English regions, only the North East of England had lower GDP per person than Wales.’

• ‘Wales also faces the challenge that its level of productivity is lower than other UK countries and English regions. Regardless of the measure of labour productivity used, the level of Welsh productivity is significantly lower than the UK average ..’ And: ‘Productivity levels in Wales have been comparatively low for much of Wales’ recent history.’

• On Gross Disposable Household income (GDHI) per head: ‘For the most recent available period, 2022, GDHI per head in Wales (82% of the UK) was the second lowest amongst UK countries and regions, higher than the North-east of England (81%), and similar to Northern Ireland (also 82%). Wales’ GDHI per head relative to the UK, at 82%, is therefore very similar to its productivity (GVA per hour) relative to the UK at 83%’ And: ‘The gap between Wales and the UK on GDHI per head has widened over the longer term.’
  • ‘In the most recent period, 2020-21 to 2022-23, the median weekly equivalised household income (before housing costs) in Wales .. is the third lowest for all UK countries and English regions with only the North West (£570) and West Midlands (£553) being lower.’
  • ‘… over the last 15 years, median household income (AHC) in Wales has been consistently lower than that for the UK as a whole and many other English regions and UK countries.’

• On unemployment: ’The unemployment rate in Wales, as shown by the APS, has tended to track the UK, albeit being slightly above, for around the last 20 years, …’

How on earth has this been able to happen under 27 continuous years of a British Labour Party government in Cardiff?

End note

I have no wish to talk down Wales: my target is the British Labour Party in Scotland and the hypocrisy it displays in attacks on the present Scottish Government, especially given the track record of the Party governing for 27 continuous years in Cardiff with only devolved powers.

Back to the Executive Summary of the ‘Wales Economic and Fiscal Report 2024: ’Wales’ economy is deeply embedded within the wider UK economy. Many of the general trends which affect the UK are likely to be reflected or heavily influence Welsh economic conditions.’ And 27 years of governing in Cardiff with devolved powers (even!) in the hands of the British Labour Party has been unable to buck these ‘general trends’ and find the means of relatively better performances. 

If England is content to vote for governments in Westminster that are ‘crap’ at running England’s and the UK’s economy, and fail to invest to provide high quality public services in England, Wales suffers. And as the evidence shows, 27 years of the British Labour Party governing in Cardiff with devolved powers is no antidote.

Who was it said ‘all roads lead to Westminster’? Scotland’s electorate should take heed of this message and reflect on Labour’s track record in Wales before voting for Anas Sarwar’s ‘change’! The change Scotland needs is to have a government with the full agency of a normal independent nation-state! And Wales probably does too.