Professor John Robertson OBA

We’ve seen here, repeatedly, in Scotland-only polls, the pollster YouGov‘s unerring ability to minimise support for the SNP, to maximise that for Labour and to produce double figure leads for the No vote in a future referendum.

Today, in a UK-wide poll with the sample adjusted in the light of the EU referendum in 2016 and the 2024 General Election, the Scottish sub-sample has this:

• Con – 7%
• Lab – 23%
• Lib Dem – 10%
• SNP – 41%
• Reform UK – 13%
• Green – 5%

The Labour figure seems wildly out given their performance in government and media coverage of that, suggesting it should be much lower, Reform UK should be in second place in the low 20s and the SNP level may be even higher.

The SNP figure of 41%, small sample taken into account, contrasts markedly with all of the many polls for Holyrood elections in 2025, adjusted to replicate the 2014 result, which have seen the SNP averaging only 34%.

Replicated in 2026, an SNP vote at around 41% would be very successful in terms of their size in parliament.

‘What about Hamilton?‘, I hear some say.

It isn’t a ‘bell-weather’ seat and given the distorting effect of the unique presence of the Orange Order there, we can ignore it for the outlier it is and will be.