Professor John Robertson OBA

From the data tables for Safer Communities and Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report: April 2025 published today, we can see that Scotland’s prison population has fallen from a peak of 8 326 in February 2025 to 8 147 last week. Weekly figures fluctuate but suggest no significant growth trend.¹

In June 2024, Scotland’s prison population was feared to climb to a maximum of 9 150² but has not, thanks to the early release programmes.

The maximum capacity of Scotland’s prisons is 8 475.³ Tight but not a crisis.

Has the early release programme been risky?

Early release scheme a fantastic success as re-offending rate plummets

Released prisoners now 27% less likely to re-offend than they were when Labour was in power

Sources:

1. https://www.gov.scot/publications/safer-communities-and-justice-statistics-report-april-2025/pages/statistics-on-prisons/
2. https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-prison-population-projections-june-2024-edition/
3. https://audit.scot/uploads/docs/report/2023/s22_231212_scottish_prison_service.pdf