More than 80% of measles infections linked to imported cases and rest of unknown origin as immunisation levels in Scotland climb again to herd immunity level

Professor John Robertson OBA

From Childhood immunisation statistics Scotland Quarter ending 30 September 2024, the above graph and:

Quarterly uptake rates in Scotland have gradually declined over time. However, in the latest quarter ending September 2024, there have been small increases in levels of protection for children aged 12 and 24 months, compared with the previous quarter.

https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/childhood-immunisation-statistics-scotland/childhood-immunisation-statistics-scotland-quarter-ending-30-september-2024/#:~:text=This%20release%20by%20Public%20Health%20Scotland%20%28PHS%29%20provides,the%20spread%20of%20disease%20in%20the%20wider%20population.

Where have these cases come from?

From Public Health Scotland on 4 March 2025: Immunisation and vaccine-preventable diseases quarterly report, October to December 2024 (Q4)

There were 24 laboratory-confirmed measles cases reported in 2024: six cases in the first quarter, eight cases in the second quarter, five cases in the third quarter and five cases in the fourth quarter. Of these 24 cases, 15 are thought to have been imported to Scotland (with four related to travel within the rest of the UK, and 11 related to travel outwith the UK), and with five further (secondary) cases resulting from contact with three of these imported cases. The remaining four cases were of unknown origin with no known epidemiological links to other cases or travel outwith Scotland.  The lack of onward transmission associated with the majority of these cases highlights the success of the MMR vaccination programme, the importance of maintaining high vaccine uptake in Scotland, and reflects the robust public health management of these cases.  

https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/immunisation-and-vaccine-preventable-diseases-quarterly-report/immunisation-and-vaccine-preventable-diseases-quarterly-report-october-to-december-2024-q4/#section-2

So, only 4 cases of measles in Scotland might be associated in some way with a decline in immunisation yet three days ago, STV reported:

Measles cases are rising in Scotland, with 22 confirmed cases in the last three months—two fewer than the total number for 2024. It comes as new figures show that there’s been a decrease in the uptake of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccinations. The first dose is offered to kids between the ages of 12 and 13 months. Last year, 92.8% had received it by 24 months old, rising to 95.1% by age five. Compared to 2020’s figures, that’s a drop of 2.1% and 1.4%.

https://news.stv.tv/scotland/measles-cases-on-the-rise-in-scotland-amid-drop-in-vaccination-uptake

Note the infantile use of the 2020 data, ignoring the increase in the last quarter, to get a visible percentage decline to then associate with the increase in cases for one quarter and create a wee crisis?

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