Professor John Robertson OBA
Update suggested by Coinneach - Find out Now don't weight according to the 2014 referendum result but did to GE 2024 to make the SNP share of the sample smaller than that of Labour (284/241). That may well understate SNP support after these first months of Labour Government.
From Find out Now, based on responses gathered on 26 March 2025, we see familiar trends becoming solidified.
On 4 December 2024, Find out Now had:
- Con 13
- Lab 21
- LD 8
- Reform 8
- Greens 8
- SNP 39
On 8 January 2025, it was:
- Con 10
- Lab 18
- LD 13
- Reform 7
- Greens 15
- SNP 36
These are small sub-polls with little value on their own but when they repeat the same story they are of interest.
What story are these last three telling us?
Look at Labour, from 21, to 18, to 12 as Starmer/Sarwar burn their boats. Look at Reform from 7 to 8 to 16, to lead the Cons.
Overall, the SNP look solid around 36%, with Labour being increasingly badly damaged by Reform. With the Cons done for, they might take almost of all the constituencies except maybe the Lib Dem pockets in the north and one or two right-wing areas in the south and in the north-east.
Even in the south and the north-east, Reform may seriously damage the Cons but not be big enough to win if the SNP can stay around 30 or above.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Interesting!
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All going well, but an election looms and Broadcasting Bull to the Colonies will play its usual suspect role.
Red Carpet out for Faragist cultists.
Gary Smith was awful but who will get the gig now? I suspect Sir “Luggy” McCallum and Dame Col Ruthie will be on the selection panel.
gavinochiltree
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Regardless of party, the unionist are still hovering around 50%.
Not too wee, not too poor… the jury is still out on the too stupid bit, though.
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What about weighting? Did they use 2014 voting to weight these polls. If so, the outcome for SNP should have been higher by c10-20%
Coinneach
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Good point – Find out Now don’t weight according to the 2014 referendum result but did to GE 2024 to make the SNP share of the sample smaller than that of Labour (284/241). That may well understate SNP support after these first months of Labour Government.
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Reform – Greens cancel out.
SNP 39 Unionists 42.
Alba? Could be an Independence majority. D’Hondt A quota. SNP/Independent votes go in the bin. To let 3rd unionists in. FPTP outright massive SNP/Independence victory.
Polls can be wrong. Censored and fined many times for breaking Electoral Rules. Gerrymandering. Trying to influence the vote. Paid.
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Pardon my profound scepticism over the reported rise in support for Reform in Scotland, it makes no sense whatever….
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I dunno Bob.
There are quite a few young men who “don’t do politics” that their nonsense appeals to.
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To reply to you and Bob groaver, I believe you are both correct. No sense, but believable. And I think it stems from a sense of hopelessness, a feeling generated by successive U.K Government’s from as far back as the 1970s. Certainly austerity as a term being used, goes back to 2010, when it was widely touted by Osbourne as necessary to “balance the books”. All nonsense of course. Since then the rich have got richer, and the poor poorer. And as for the present lot, well, they are just making matters worse, deliberately. So yes, a lot will vote for Reform, despite it not even being a political party, but most won’t realise that, and will be taken in by the propaganda of a bunch of very rich people, who don’t give a jot for the poor, nor indeed for Scotland. In fact one of its M.Ps called for the Scottish Parliament to be abolished. Unfortunately, It looks as though they will have M.S.Ps elected, unless matters change.
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The major consolations that I have about the rise of Reform is that they will probably poll about half as well as in England, and that the main party most damaged by Reform will be the Tories, followed by Labour and lastly the SNP.
The dreadful danger though is that a Reform victory in England will cause enormous damage to Scotland if we do not escape the Union.
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There is no doubt that the obvious failure of 14 years of various Tory UK governments and now also the obvious failure of a new Labour (Tory) UK government since 2024 , who as the new Labour (Tory) UK government, are seemingly determined to go down the same cruel, disastrous and dangerous path as the previous Tory governments went , has now left voters feeling tremendously let down by politics and also by (pro) UK political parties.
We, and others, know 100% that Reform UK are not the solution, as in the panacea, to the woes people have suffered under various mainstream UK political parties as UK governments.
As we all know that Reform UK will only add to , as in exacerbate in the future, all of our past and current woes derived from the many terrible policies and bad decisions made by selfish and cruel mainstream UK governments.
In Holyrood, Reform UK , will be just another UK protest party against the SNP and also very much against Scottish independence.
Richard Tice, the Deputy leader of Reform UK, offered an olive branch to Anas Sarwar in saying that if any MSP’s were elected from his party in 2026, as in Reform UK, then they would vote for Sarwar to be the next FM, which resulted in Sarwar stating that would leave him “open” as a potential new Labour FM to “listening to” future suggestions and having future discussions with Reform UK MSP’s.
However the same Richard Tice from the same Reform UK party has been dismissive and critical of Sarwar’s English boss, Keir Starmer, as the UK PM.
As Reform UK wants to steal votes away from English Labour in the up and coming English Council elections and also subsequently in the next UK GE in 2029.
Sarwar seems cool with that, as his ambition to be the next FM in Scotland, overrides his political opposition to those who are clearly a ‘rival’ party , and a threat, to Labour HQ, where perhaps with more pro UK parties within Holyrood, then not so great minds can think alike in the Scottish parliament, if and only when it is controlled by English Nationalist political parties.
I fail to see how any intelligent or fair minded voters in Scotland will see Reform UK, a party led by Nigel Farage, as the best option for them either personally or for Scotland politically.
Or indeed how Sarwar as FM will be any different to how Starmer as the UK PM has been , as far as trust and keeping promises are concerned, as in they both obviously do not deserve to be trusted or seen to be politicians who keep their election campaign promises !
The UK GE campaign in 2024 Should haunt Labour in the 2026 Scottish elections.
However I can see how some less intelligent and less fair minded people (Bigots even), who normally vote for the Tories but who now consider the Tories to be a politically spent force , may then vote for Nigel’s Pseudo political (protest) party in 2026. As many of these voters will never “surrender” to Scotland while they themselves as ‘British’ voters and ‘British’ citizens pledge an neverending allegiance to a Royalist English politically controlled Britain.
We may , in Scotland, have an excessive amount of mainstream media and also too an excessive amount of alternative media, who are all against the SNP in Scotland in the run up to the 2026 Scottish elections.
However we also unfortunately still have within our midst an element of the kind of voters who seem determined to continue along the path of celebrating chaos , indeed encouraging it, in them continuing to vote in elections for the antithesis of political progress for Scotland. (as in anyone but the SNP).
That kind of opposition that exists within Scotland can only be overcome politically in many more non politically compromised voters all finally waking up to the reality of what is best for them, their families and friends and also the place that they actually live in, Scotland.
Where they as non politically compromised voters in Scotland have no obsessive, or fervent , or all consuming, or fanatical , or excessively extreme , or manic commitment and overwhelming allegiance to a now defunct Royalist Britain dominated and controlled by English political parties.
Many of these UK (English dominant) political parties request that we, the public, must use our “common sense”.
Now if that, “Common sense”, was applied by the public in Scotland (as in the non politically compromised public ) then parties like the Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and Reform UK would be minor elements (irritants only) within our politics in Scotland.
We, via a majority, need to vote SNP in 2026 as a first step to prove to English Nationalist parties that Scotland is not a colony owned by England , where they and their English parliament, can plunder our resources and profit by them while declaring that Scotland is the subsidy ‘Junkie’ of their Britain or their UK. (take your pick).
Where they cannot try to corrupt our politics in Scotland in the same way that they have corrupted politics within England .
(Though a certain type of voter within Scotland will always vote against what is best for anywhere but Scotland, thankfully they are in the minority, hence why their previous choice of party , the Tories, have never become the Scottish government in our Scottish parliament).
Mind you those certain type of voters, if they do intend to vote for Reform UK in 2026, then technically they, as voters, will still be voting for the Tories Ha Ha, as many former Tory Councillors have now defected to the Reform UK party and some, like perhaps Thomas Kerr , may stand for reform UK in 2026 .
Vote SNP in 2026 or suffer the dire consequences that will surely ensue if you vote for either Labour, Tory, Lib Dem, or God Forbid, for Reform UK (who seek to neither reform anything other than their own personal and political fortunes and also the fortunes of those who fund them, so any reform they intend to make for Scotland will be for the worse) as they, as a party, are an obvious English Nationalist party first and foremost. Pass it on please.
Liz S
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O/T Sorry John but some more anti Scottish propaganda in the herald today.
Today in The Herald I see that they are blaming the Scottish Government, or more succinctly and inaccurately, blaming the SNP for fostering agencies robbing millions of pounds of public money for their own profit, or as the headline states….”Call to end ‘backdoor profiteering’ in Scotland’s fostering system”.
The article opens with…….”Campaigners have called on the Scottish Government to take action against fostering agencies diverting millions of pounds of public money to their private equity-backed parent companies.
Legally, foster care services for children and young people in Scotland must be provided on a not-for-profit basis”.
Call to end ‘backdoor profiteering’ in Scotland’s fostering system | The Herald
Damage done…shouts of SNP corruption, get Sarwar or Baillie or any British unionist party “spokesperson” or a “campaigner” working alongside those unionist parties, to deride and insult the Scottish Government who are, according to the report ‘Legally compliant, morally questionable’: Calls to end foster care profit ‘loophole’
No need to read any further as The Herald readers know all about that “nasty” SNP Government. No need to find out more information of the ‘real’ story as The Herald readers ‘know’ that their paper wouldn’t lie to them.
Or would they?
This from Community Care 2016 where the President of the Association of Directors of Children’s Services, Dave Hill, spoke out against Independent Fostering Agencies (IFAs) offering £3,000 “Golden Hellos” to foster carers to switch agencies.
“He urged ministers to consider lessons from Scotland, where laws state fostering agencies which are profit making cannot approve, review or terminate the approval of foster carers. Only a local authority, or voluntary agency acting on their behalf, can do this.
Hill said: “It just seems to us that this idea of a golden hello of £3,000 then charging higher rates back to us in a very short space of time is just immoral.”
In the article The Sunday Times reported last weekend how two of Britain’s biggest foster care companies, Acorn and the National Fostering Agency, were to merge in an ambitious £400m plan.
Government wants to keep profit making out of child protection – why not from care?
So from what I can tell, this is a problem in England and not Scotland but because the problem is in England it is a problem in Scotland…..according to The Herald.
JB
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