No evidence that A&E long waits are ‘contributing’ to deaths as Scotland’s hospital death rate falls

https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/hospital-standardised-mortality-ratios/hospital-standardised-mortality-ratios-october-2023-to-september-2024/
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By Professor John Robertson OBA, former Chair Faculty Research Ethics Committee, UWS

The Scotsman today has another health service scare story – Action call as A&E waits ‘contribute to 1 000 deaths.’

The claim is based on ‘research’ by a health trade union, understandably working on behalf of its members’ interests but it’s also mince (no speech marks).

Have a look at the above line graph. Where’s the upward trend in hospital mortality rates? The trend is actually downward.

Why are delays not causing additional deaths? Here’s why.

There is no correlation between A&E waiting times and deaths as the ambulance prioritising system and the triage system in hospitals ensure that those at risk of dying are cared for extremely quickly. At worst, delays result in longer waiting times only for those cases in which to do so, is NOT life-threatening.

Finally, is the problem particularly bad in Scotland? Compared to NHS England or Wales?

12 hour A&E waits TWICE as long in England and nearly THREE TIMES as long in Wales
FIVE TIMES as many wait more than 12 hours in two English A&E departments than in Glasgow as 57% of NHS England hospitals fail to declare critical incidents despite ‘out-of-control waiting times
Massive surge in patients waiting more than 12 hours in NHS England A&E after 6 months of Labour-rule
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One thought on “No evidence that A&E long waits are ‘contributing’ to deaths as Scotland’s hospital death rate falls”

  1. It’s the false ‘causation’ which gets right up my nose when this abject nonsense is trotted out – “Every time I bring my umbrella with me, it rains. Clearly, if I leave it at home, there will be sunshine!”

    Does David have only one Bol ? https://archive.ph/MXH93 ” ‘Appalling’: SNP under fire for soaring A&E waits causing more than 1,000 needless deaths” followed by the sub-headline ” Soaring long waits at Scotland’s A&E departments has likely contributed to more than 1,000 needless deaths ” in smaller bold print for the less myopic…

    Essentially it’s promotion piece for the 3 wise-ass monkeys of Holyrood, Disaster Gulhane, Tsunami Baillie and Crisis ACH-him, with the usual hyper-bollox…

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