Reform pushing steadily into 1st place in UK and 2nd in Scotland as Sarwar’s dream of FM with Reform turn to ashes

The Talking-up Scotland fund raiser primarily, finishing in 10 days, to enable the recruitment of some research assistance, in order to take pressure off me [74 in June and tiring] and hopefully to further improve the blog, has made a good start. To contribute, only if you can (!) go to: Talking-up Scotland - a Politics crowdfunding project in Ayr by Professor John Robertson

By Professor John Robertson OBA, former Faculty Research Ethics Chair, UWS

Six out of the last seven UK polls for Westminster have had Reform UK ahead of Labour, and only 1 point behind, in the other. The latest from Find Out Now gives them their biggest lead so far.

In the Scottish sub-poll, above, they’re into 2nd place for the second time in a row after being only 1 point behind Labour in 2nd place, in the previous one.

Looking at the previous 7 sub-polls, from mid-January back to mid-December 2024, Reform had moved steadily from 4th to reach 3rd place in the last 4, beginning from the end of December 2024.

In sharp contrast, the Cons had collapsed into 4th place and Labour had begun to fade from around 20% to 15% and 12% in the last two. They both look done for now as the SNP, climbing slowly from the low to mid 30s, seems well placed to keep Reform in 2nd place across the country except, perhaps, in those Con seats in the Borders and the North-East, if both Cons and Lab jump together to them.

Particularly clear, is the collapse of Scottish Labour to support levels around only half that of UK Labour and confirming the wrong-headedness of Sir Prof John Curtice’s theory, that Scottish Labour is suffering because of Starmer’s unpopularity, when the evidence points to Anas as the problem.

In November 2024, Reform UK may have hoped to be strong enough in Holyrood to be kingmakers. I suspect they have bigger plans now.

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11 thoughts on “Reform pushing steadily into 1st place in UK and 2nd in Scotland as Sarwar’s dream of FM with Reform turn to ashes”

  4. Considering voting Reform UK in Scotland ?

    Frying pan to fire.

    Here’s a story reported about a Reform UK Councillor in Wales which was on the BBC Website as a article.

    On 13 February 2025 a report was made that related to a Reform UK party Councillor in Wales.

    The Councillor, David Thomas, posted on social media that “he had “officially” opened a new Lidl in Cwmbran, posing alongside store workers, and two other Reform councillors”.

    A post that he , Thomas, has since deleted.

    Why did he delete this post ?

    Well it’s because it did not happen , as apparently in he was not invited by the Supermarket to “officially open it’s new store” .

    On 6 February, Thomas said on social media that he was “absolutely thrilled to have the honor of officially opening the stunning, futuristic new [Lidl] store in Cwmbran today” and he also posted a picture of himself holding a large pair of red scissors, alongside Torfaen’s other two Reform councillors, Jason O’Connell and Alan Slade. Other pictures showed him looking around the store.

    However the supermarket stated that there was “no official ribbon cutting took place and no formal invitations had been issued”.

    However the councillor said Lidl’s complaint was “absolute nonsense”, and he accused the store of not wanting to be associated with his party, and said he had been invited by a Torfaen council official.

    The council said a “junior member” of its “employability team” had emailed the councillor regarding the opening time of the new store.

    Employability team – helps young people who have left school but are not in work or studying, and adults who are seeking work but need support to overcome barriers to employment

    Why would a member of an Employability team, that is a “Junior member” of the council, and so not a Council official as stated by Mr Thomas, email him with an invite ?

    Perhaps he, Mr Thomas, emailed the council asking them when this store would be opening , so the email he received was in response to his query .

    As it seems somewhat strange and also very random that a person from this Employability team would just do this out of the blue with absolutely no prompting unless they knew him or they supported his party , so then they too were complicit, which seems to not be the case as the Council did not suggest this.

    Thomas’ allegation against Lidl acting politically was disputed by a source at the supermarket who said it reflected his opinion “rather than the fact”.

    David Thomas made headlines earlier that week when it emerged “he was listed as a composer on songs that include crude language about women”.

    This same individual hopes to stand in 2026 for the Welsh Senedd for Reform UK and I really hope he does not succeed because it appears that he , like others in his party, is someone who is not averse to lying to try and gain an undeserved political advantage.

    All three Reform councillors , who were in the picture Thomas posted of him supposedly ‘opening this new store’ joined the party last year.

    It seems to be that Reform UK’s selection process and, checks notes, vetting, is most suspect and perhaps non existent as it seems to be a case of them just accepting any person who is willing to stand for them as a candidate.

    Hence why we often hear about many of their candidates either being suspended or removed from the party, but only after the media has exposed something relating to them as a member of their party.

    David Thomas was a former Labour member and was one of three independent Torfaen councillors that joined Reform last year , a lesson in ‘Beware the independents’ as they may turn out to be less independent than you may have thought them to be, with this being a classic , but not unique, example.

    Politics of the UK is a cesspit and is being dominated by snakes from all pro UK party colours, including very much Reform UK, and unfortunately some voters here either fail to recognise this or worse are aware of it and support it.

    Something eventually has to give as all of this turmoil , instability , suffering , despair and chaos in the UK, mainly because of bad and poor leadership , surely cannot be sustained or be seen as acceptable for much longer.

    The Reform UK party are not the solution to anything indeed they are those who will make it all even worse.

    Powder keg and explosion springs to mind.

    Though in Scotland just supporting only the SNP in 2026 and also in all other elections , and so never ever voting for any English nationalist party, would at least be a first step to us finally gaining a real opportunity to having a real sense of hope, a real chance of getting some stability, a real fresh start and change and actually experiencing real and significant reforms happening in the future of what could be Scotland as an independent country.

    Now , more than ever, is very much the time for the majority in Scotland to both support and also vote for the SNP as the alternatives will hurt them and also those that they love.

    As many many times before we have warned other voters here in Scotland of the perils of voting for the wrong parties but hopefully this time more will decide to listen and also agree with us and so act accordingly.

    Liz S

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  5. I’ll say it again John – Despite Tory then Labour falling from grace in England, there is no way in hell anyone left of Badenoch would vote for Reform, or left of Findlay in Scotland.

    Irrespective of Labour’s collapse in support under Sarwar ( dead man walking ), Reform is almost universally despised – The figures reek of a manipulation, but I’ve no idea how they’re doing it…

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    1. Yes I am pretty much in agreement with you there Bob.

      BTW , may God forgive me for saying this but I have just watched a video on Otto English’s Twitter account, where none other than Julia Hartley-Brewer, yes the actual JHB, totally destroys an argument , or rather a non argument, that was failing to be made by Richard Tice the Deputy leader of Reform UK party.

      Honestly if ever there was an example of how bereft these absolute chancers are from the Reform UK Party then this is it, where they will try to justify and defend absolutely any argument that they think fits their warped narrative, no matter how ridiculous and false it sounds and is , in fact it only takes someone like the Rottweiler JHB or anyone with guts to challenge them and then it makes them look and sound even more ridiculous, clueless and weak than they truly are.

      This guy Tice is no politician and neither is his so called party in any way political either, as they are nowt more than what would be, in the future , guaranteed Merchants of Disaster.

      Seems to be that they wanted to supposedly ‘take back control from the EU’ to now hand over all control to Trump and his America, perhaps also conceding something for Putin and his Russia as well.

      Watch the video Bob if you can , it really reveals just how stupid and duplicitous Richard Tice really is, but then I’m sure you already knew that anyway.

      Liz S

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      1. Said it before Liz, listen to Gary Stevenson’s excellent explanation about the rich clique not only protecting their own assets but building on them them by buying out everybody else.
        There were always problems with the EU model, but it had the mechanism to change, and that was chat Farage et al feared most, their ability to fleece the populace would be impaired.
        So they promoted ‘Bring back control’ and the (not so) masses approved, thus the “Fish called Wonder” progressed in politics…
        Copy the link and I’ll have a look, but I’m not sure the screen will survive another Hardy-Bruiser exposure – Will hide all throwable objects and have a stiff drink then apply velcro to the wrists…. Could knacker my remaining teeth though….

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        1. So sorry Bob but I cannot link it onto here but it is apparently also, as an interview, on YouTube under ”Trump-Putin Negotiations Not A Betrayal Of Ukraine’ | Richard Tice’s Furious Clash With Julia’.

          Many non fans of JHB are applauding her on social media for exposing Tice’s obvious stupidity (ignorance) and so pretty much humiliating him in also exposing his double standards as well.

          Though this , as an interview, is not a solitary example of him being shown up as a complete and utter moron.

          Cretin does not even describe how he came over in this interview Ha Ha.

          Whenever people lack any real belief and conviction in what they are saying it becomes so obvious , as whenever they are challenged , their false arguments and fake logic falls apart .

          They know they are being dishonest as all they have is propaganda, not truth, to offer the public.

          Tice, like Farage, does have the gift of the gab , but what comes out of the gab is not worth listening to, as it is such unadulterated rubbish.

          So that is why Tice became far less articulate and less confident when he was challenged by someone like JHB on the validity and sense of what he was saying .

          He also tried that old trick of talking over her to try to obscure the truth she was speaking , in her making some very good points that pretty much disputed his ignorant nonsense , also known as her ‘Destroying him’ Ha Ha.

          What a complete and utter fraud Richard Tice and his party are.

          This time it took one of their own to expose that fact.

          Liz S

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  6. Perhaps I’m a bit slow on the uptake these days but from reading about Trumps earliest political affiliations as a member of Reform Party USA it serves to remind those who are currently politically ‘undecided’ that if you want somebody like him that is a complete Buffoon, convicted Fraudster, Misogynist, Serial liar, Twice Bankrupt, Egotist, White supremacist, that prefers to give tax cuts to the very wealthy while victimising the poor and disadvantaged and also being a generally disgusting individual then I guess the Reform Party might just be the Party that best represents your interests.

    Robbo

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