The Talking-up Scotland fund raiser primarily to enable the recruitment of some research assistance, in order to take pressure off me [74 in June and tiring] and hopefully to further improve the blog, has made a good start. To contribute, only if you can (!) go to: Talking-up Scotland - a Politics crowdfunding project in Ayr by Professor John Robertson

By Professor John Robertson OBA, former Faculty Research Ethics Chair, UWS

From Hospital Standardised Mortality Ratios October 2023 to September 2024 published today:

The above funnel plot shows that all of Scotland’s hospitals had the level of mortality previously predicted in earlier data and on the basis of demographic factors such as age and levels of poverty, in the catchment area.

The bigger urban hospitals such as Glasgow’s QEUH (on the extreme right), are to the right and the very small, in rural areas and on the islands, to the left. Those below the blue line had slightly lower than expected mortality rates and those above had slightly higher rates. Those above the line remained within the normal range, suggesting no problems with, for example, infections, resources or staffing. Those amber and red dots are good signs, telling us that the Western General in Edinburgh and Raigmore Hospital in Inverness, with only 79 and 84 deaths per 100 predicted, the latter often unfairly attacked by Scottish Labour and Iain Findlay of BMA Scotland, had significantly fewer deaths than the statisticians expected in the light of demographic change in the catchment, eg an aging population. Had it been the other way, they’d be abused by Labour’s Jackie Baillie and the Cons’ Sandesh Gulhane so must now get credit and praise, at least here.

Smaller hospitals with smaller populations and fewer deaths are more difficult to predict and quarterly variations can produce bigger ratio changes but the funnel web shape allows for that.

No larger Scottish hospital had a higher than expected mortality rate.

Comparisons with NHS England are not straightforward and, in particular, their funnel chart for September 2023 to August 2024, is scaled differently, but the actual figures for some of the hospitals are revealing:

We see more evidence of a two-tier system here with a cluster of hospitals in affluent areas revealing as many as 700 fewer deaths than predicted and others in the north, with the same number, in excess of even predictions made in the full knowledge of the local poverty-levels. In England, it makes a huge difference to your chances if you attend in Chelsea as opposed to Lancashire.

Sources:

1. https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/hospital-standardised-mortality-ratios/hospital-standardised-mortality-ratios-october-2023-to-september-2024/
2. https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMDM5YzJkNjItZDUyNS00ZDRlLWJmOTItMjE2ZTA0M2VjYzI1IiwidCI6IjM3YzM1NGIyLTg1YjAtNDdmNS1iMjIyLTA3YjQ4ZDc3NGVlMyJ9

Support Scots Independent, Scotland’s oldest pro-independence newspaper and host of the OBA (Oliver Brown Award) at: https://scotsindependent.scot/FWShop/shop/

The Oliver Brown Award for advancing the cause of Scotland’s self respect, previously awarded to Dr Philippa Whitford, Alex Salmond and Sean Connery: https://scotsindependent.scot/?page_id=116

About Oliver Brown, the first Scottish National Party candidate to save his deposit in a Parliamentary election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Brow