From Opinium today, based on polling on 5-7 February 2025, with a 1 475 total sample including 124 Scots, the above results. Saying essentially the same as the previous 8 sub-polls and now based on a total sample of more than 1 000, unaffected by the dubious sampling adjustment used in most Scotland-only polls, to reflect the 2014 referendum result, the SNP is well-ahead and Labour/Cons are collapsing under the Reform UK assault.
We also see, clear as day, the Scottish Labour support under Sarwar at barely half that of UK Labour under Starmer, as both Conservative and Labour social conservatives/unionists flock to the Farage banner.
In terms of outcomes, if translated to the Holyrood poll in2026, this does suggest complete dominance of the SNP in the constituencies except perhaps in the Lib Dem refuges and the Conservative strongholds of the Borders and North East regions where Conservative majorities might just leap to Reform UK.
Is the above an outlier of evidence of more stable patterns?
On 3rd February 2025, from YouGov, a very similar message:
UK-wide
- Con – 22%
- Lab – 27%
- LD – 14%
- Reform UK – 23%
- Green – 9%
Scottish Sub-poll (214)
- Con – 13%
- Lab – 15%
- LD – 13%
- Reform UK – 17%!
- SNP – 34%
- Green – 5%
Then for the previous 7 sub-polls with Scottish sub-polls, these averages:
Regardless of the SNP support not back at full strength, though Op Branchform looks like withering soon, this suggests an SNP wipe-out other than in some Con and LibDem seats.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Beats me why any Scot would want to vote for a party of little Englanders.
LikeLike
Noted Cons in deep trouble what about this con.
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/scottish-politics/6689605/north-east-msp-holyrood-questions-cost/
Also this one in the letter pages.
Affordability-England subsidises Scotland £41 billion per annum–National debt SG running annual deficit of £22 billion——I am no maths person I would like to know where this figures come from maybe Sarwar could help.
LikeLike
https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2025/02/09/opposition-msps-and-journalists-waste-5-million-in-taxpayers-money-to-try-to-dig-dirt-on-snp-government-in-a-42-surge/
LikeLike
BBC Hootsmon ran a story just now, about “Loads o’ jobs” Sarwar telling Cap’n Starmerer every 5 minutes about Grangemouth…………. but the BEEB managed to tell us all this without ANY mention of Sarwar “promising” to SAVE Grangemouth during an election. Yup, Sarwar would SAVE Grangemouth and all the jobs !!!!!!
Tho’ the BEEB did manage to somehow stick it to the SNP in the process.
gavinochiltree
LikeLiked by 3 people
To paraphrase an Englishman, “I’m warier than a wary person who’s wary about this.”
SNP need to accentuate the positives of independence more.
He who shouts loudest with the facts.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Remember that big promise from the British Labour Party to voters in Scotland at the last election – that big, positive, transformational Labour gift to Scotland and its economy – GB Energy?
Many individuals then and since have puzzled over what GB Energy is actually going to do, how and where and to what net additional economic impact. Scepticism over its economic benefit was hardly alleviated by its recently appointed chair acknowledging in recent days that Labour’s election promises of significant additional employment and a reduction in energy bills attributable to GB Energy would in reality be ‘a decades long project’!
An article (6 February) in the specialist financial/business newspaper, City AM adds to the list of sceptics: Government pursuing ‘confused’ approach to energy transition. (https://www.cityam.com/government-pursuing-confused-approach-to-energy-transition/ )
The sentiment expressed in the City AM piece regarding the British Labour Party government’s energy policies is damning. It reports the views of the CEO of OEG Energy Group, a global player in the supply of specialist equipment to the energy industry which employs 1,300 staff and is headquartered in Aberdeen.
‘The UK’s “confused” energy strategy is more about slogans than results and risks hollowing out the local economy in Aberdeen, the boss of one of the UK’s largest energy services firms has said.’
‘… the government is adopting a jumbled approach to growing the economy that has jeopardised the UK energy sector’s regional dominance.’
“[The government] is pursuing a confused message to prioritise growth,” and “It is turning off some of the very projects that would produce growth in the next five years, while the Heathrow [runway expansion] would only produce growth in the next 15 to 20 years.”
The City AM piece recalls that a core part of Labour’s plan to meet the UK’s annual demands with clean energy by 2030 is ‘the establishment of Great British (GB) Energy, a state-owned clean energy company funded by a windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas firms’. The OEG CEO’s opinion of GB Energy? “It feels like a slogan, really,” he said. “I’m still a bit confused about what they’re going to do.
“It’s not like there’s a lack of people investing in offshore wind in the UK already. I didn’t see a hole that was there for GB Energy to fill.”
LikeLiked by 2 people