By Professor John Robertson OBA

The Herald’s Helen McCardle asks that first question above then proceeds to circle around it with a mass of information and comment, ending up by claiming:

The above needs the addition – ‘but at what cost in lives?’

So, after the pandemic, NHS England’s two-year waiting list for those with life-diminishing but not life-threatening conditions, such as arthritis, was cleared but Scotland’s was not.

How did they do that?

The NHS has spent a record £12.3billion outsourcing patients to private hospitals to try to clear waiting lists, figures show. Official data reveals a 12 per cent increase over the past year, with the total surpassing the sum spent at the height of the pandemic. Department of Health accounts show £12.357billion spent on private sector providers in 2023/24, up from £11.015billion in 2022/23. The figure is higher than in 2020/21, the first year of the pandemic, when £12.139billion was spent.¹

Why did they do that?

Boris Johnson PM pushed them to do so for entirely PR reasons² and 31 trusts are now in serious debt.³

What about the 18-week waiting list for those with life-threatening conditions, risk of death from stroke, heart attack or cancers?

Why does the 18 week target matter so much?

Long waits for, eg, time-critical heart care put people at risk of life-long heart failure or even early death. Meeting the 18 week target also prevents the waitlist from increasing over time, causing a backlog.

NHS Scotland prioritised those cases.

From Public Health Scotland on November 26th 2024:

Of all pathways completed, 85.7% (242,384) were fully measurable against the 18-week standard. 68.1% (164,983) of these pathways were completed within 18 weeks of referral, an increase from 65.5% in the previous quarter.¹

From the Nuffield Trust in April 2024, the most recent comparable data I can find, the equivalent figure was only 57%.²

Put simply, if NHS Scotland had been led by a Conservative government, 8-9% of the 242 384 referred, around 20 000 patients, would have waited longer than they did under the SNP.

McCardle’s report is extensive and looks well-sourced, at first, but is merely an exercise in deception.

Sources:

1. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14219547/NHS-spends-BILLION-patients-private-hospitals.html
2. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58480863
3. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-19650963#:~:text=The%20Audit%20Commission%20report%20said%2031%20trusts%20posted,%C2%A32bn%20surplus%20-%20about%202%25%20of%20its%20budget.
4. https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/nhs-waiting-times-18-weeks-referral-to-treatment/nhs-waiting-times-18-weeks-referral-to-treatment-quarter-ending-30-june-2024/
5. https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/treatment-waiting-times#:~:text=How%20do%20treatment%20waiting%20times%20vary%20by%20specialty?&text=Waiting%20times%20for%20elective%20treatment,decreased%20(data%20not%20shown).