By Professor John Robertson OBA

Many thanks to AR for alerting me to this.

Two days ago, the Times had an extended report, widely copied across the media and exciting Unionist voices, to suggest that NHS Scotland is actually lagging behind NHS England, on the overall backlog, cancer waiting times and A&E waiting times.

I’ll tackle them one at a time.

Cancer waiting times

The Times has:

The waiting times for cancer treatment are continuing to surge in England and Scotland, with only 73 per cent and 68 per cent of cases respectively meeting the 62-day target from the time of referral to the start of treatment.

First, note the reversal of the figures. Even based on their own graph, the 73% figure applies to Scotland and not to England.

Second, regarding the supposed ‘surge’ in Scotland, the above graph, is quite clear that there was an increase in the number not seen within 62 days, from Q3 in 2020 but from Q2 2023, it has stabilised. As for the 31 day target, that has been steady and close to 95% since records began.

Third, the Times authors have chosen to report only one of two cancer treatment waiting times, the 62 days from urgent suspicion of cancer referral to first cancer treatment and not the 31 days from decision to treat to first cancer treatment.

Here for the quarter ending 30 June 2024, as per the Times, I think (not specified by them):

England – 66.6% seen within 62 days and 91.1% within 31 days.

Wales – 55.3% seen within 62 days and no data collected for 31 days.

Northern Ireland – 34%(!!!) and 87.9%

Scotland, 73.2% [up from 70.5% in the previous quarter] and 95.5% [up from 94.1% in the previous quarter].

Sources:

https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/cancer-waiting-times/cancer-waiting-times-1-april-to-30-june-2024/

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/waitingtimesforcancertreatmentacrosstheuk/2024-08-23#:~:text=All%20UK%20countries%20have%20a,from%20the%20%22decision%2Dto%2D