Scottish homicide rate falls 23% to 10% below that in England & Wales and more than 100% solved

By Professor John Robertson, OBA

From Recorded Crime in Scotland published today, we see that there were 48 recorded cases of murder and culpable homicide in Scotland in the year ending September 2024, down 11% on the previous year and down 23% on 2022.1

How is BBC Scotland covering this? They’re not.

From the ONS in July 2024, there were 583 homicide offences in England & Wales for the year ending March 2024.2

All things being equal, England & Wales might have been expected to have a homicide rate 11 times that of Scotland, or 528 but had 583, 55 times more, 10.4% more.

Also, from Police Scotland  on 31 October 2023:

Every homicide committed in Scotland since 2013 has been detected by Police Scotland. In 2022/23, all 52 homicides committed in Scotland were detected.

Latest statistics from Scottish Government, published today, show the number of homicides committed in Scotland continues to reduce. Police Scotland’s 100 per cent homicide detection rate means that every one of the 605 murders committed since the inception of the single national service in 2013, has been solved.

In addition, a significant number of ‘cold cases’, some committed many decades ago, have also been detected with the culprits identified, often using the latest technologies, and brought to trial. These have included the murders of Brenda Page (1978) and Renee MacRae (1976).3

Only the Express covered this story claiming to have found one unsolved from 2019, only because it hasn’t gone to court yet, and five from before 2013, which are unsolved.

In England, it’s 99% with 16 cases unsolved just last year.4

Sources:

  1. https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-year-ending-september-2024/
  2. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2024#:~:text=4.-,Homicide,9.7%20per%201%20million%20people).
  3. https://www.scotland.police.uk/what-s-happening/news/2023/homicides-in-scotland-2022-23/
  4. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/sep/03/lost-missing-evidence-cases-freedom-of-information-police

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3 thoughts on “Scottish homicide rate falls 23% to 10% below that in England & Wales and more than 100% solved”

  1. Pingback: ‘Police in England, Wales and NI too overworked to investigate crimes properly’ – Any word on Scotland with 28% more officers? – Talking-up Scotland

  2. That’s good. Police strategy over the last ten years has made a huge difference in Glasgow and Strathclyde in particular. Traditionally the murder rate in Scotland was a fair bit higher than England and Wales per capita. We must be complacent, though. Drugs deaths are some 3x more in Scotland than the other nations of the UK. Prison deaths are up hugely in the last years reporting, too. Deaths in Scottish prisons among highest in Europe https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qw2n3gzzzo

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  3. Pingback: Does the Herald think that police numbers should go up as crime falls more than twice as fast as staffing? – Talking-up Scotland

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